What makes an effective protest

What makes an effective protest

One which changes a government’s intended actions or leads it to do something it might not otherwise have done? A few guidelines:- Get the law-abiding on side. Enough of them to make government MPs worry about their majorities. The poll tax riots did not change government policy. But that so many Tory voters were incensed at the proposal did worry Tory MPs and played a big part in Thatcher losing their votes. Little wonder Major ditched an election-losing policy once…

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The extraordinary battle the AstraZeneca vaccine has in being accepted across Europe

The extraordinary battle the AstraZeneca vaccine has in being accepted across Europe

The above is from a range of polls that YouGov has been carrying out across Europe on how the AstraZeneca vaccine is perceived by the public in the major countries featured. It is perhaps not surprising given the comments made by Macron and Merkel that the most negative perceptions are in their countries. Maybe it is a bit of the not invented here syndrome but the perception gap is massive and not helped by the regular reports of almost empty…

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It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…

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How the Sunday Times made this grumpy old man (me) even grumpier

How the Sunday Times made this grumpy old man (me) even grumpier

Moving from a 56-44 split in favour of independence to a 50-50 one is NOT a 12% swing I do not think that I am generally very pedantic but there is one issue that really gets under my skin and that is the incorrect use of the term “swing”. A classic came yesterday in the Sunday Times when a 56-44 Scottish polling lead for independence moved to a 50-50 split. As can be seen in the panel above the Sunday…

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The government is right to junk Supplementary Vote – it’s the worst of all worlds

The government is right to junk Supplementary Vote – it’s the worst of all worlds

It’s the only system that genuinely makes valid votes worthless The only exciting thing about the London mayoral election result this year is likely to be whether Sadiq Khan wins on the first vote or is forced into second preferences. He will not be close by Shaun Bailey or any of the many other candidates but may miss out on the 50% share needed to secure a first-preference win. That he might need a second round at all is because…

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After all these months since he ceased to be an MEP Farage has found a new role

After all these months since he ceased to be an MEP Farage has found a new role

Basically for what appears to be a fee £75 the former UKIP and Brexit Party leader will record a special personalised video which people can give as birthday presents and the like. Click on here see to see what it looks and sounds like. This is certainly original and looks as though it will be a good way of raising funds from his most committed supporters. In his promotional Tweet Farage is right – this is a great way of…

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Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

Only a quarter of voters would vote for a Royal This YouGov polling really did catch my attention, just 7% of the country would vote for The Queen as head of state, that shakes out at roughly 1% for every decade she’s been on the throne. I wonder if this is the result of the Brexit campaign. Taking back control from our unelected rulers has never been more popular. I mean today we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or Prime Ministers,…

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Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…

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