It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

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In today’s Sunday Times we see another poll that’s great for the SNP and supporters of Scottish independence, I was struck by Professor Sir John Curtice’s analysis in the Sunday Times Although Scotland has had among the world’s highest proportion of Covid-related fatalities, based on excess deaths, Sturgeon has an approval rating of plus 60 for her handling of the crisis — measuring the difference between those who think she has done a good or a bad job. By contrast,…

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Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems

Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems

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It’s easy to forget, but there’s a leadership election going on. The Liberal Democrats misplaced their last leader during another disappointing election night and now needs a new one. There are two candidates, over 100,000 eligible voters (yes, really), eight weeks to go, and virtually no media coverage. Perfect time for a look at the betting options. Where we came from Leadership elections are often a reaction to the perceived failures of the previous leader. Corbyn promised radicalism when Miliband…

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YouGov’s Chris Curtis has this right on Farage

YouGov’s Chris Curtis has this right on Farage

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Earlier in the day Farage published a pic of himself on Twitter drinking a pint. This led to claims on Twitter that he shouldn’t have been in the pub at all. He should still be in quarantine following his trip to the US to be part of Trump Tulsa rally. This led acting LD leader, Ed Davey, to call on Kent police to investigate what is a breach of the lockdown rules. The Curtis response above looks correct to me….

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Biden (77yo) just beating Trump (74yo) as having the mental and physical stamina to be President

Biden (77yo) just beating Trump (74yo) as having the mental and physical stamina to be President

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This polling question is really one of the biggest of the campaign given how old both the presumptive nominees are. What we see in the poll finding here is that Biden just edges it over Trump but not by very much. There have been instances over the past few months when both men have appeared past it and it will be critical for both their chances that there should be no repetition which is widely picked up by the media….

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The end of the honeymoon

The end of the honeymoon

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At some point LAB will take the lead Labour has not led in any GB poll since 28 July 2019, four days after Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May as Prime Minister. They did so with a share of just 30%: one more than the Tories and one less than the combined Lib Dem and Brexit Party shares. It seems a lot more than eleven months ago. Clearly, a huge amount has changed since then but the Tory position at the…

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Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson

Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson

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This week Kieran Pedley is joined by former Deputy Chief of Staff to David Cameron, Baroness Kate Fall and by Asa Bennett, Brexit Editor at the Daily Telegraph. Interspersed with insights from Ipsos MORI polling, they look at the state the Conservative Party finds itself in now; how it might differ from the party led by David Cameron; and the challenge posed to the future of the Conservatives in government by the election of Keir Starmer as leader of the…

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WH2020 looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

WH2020 looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time

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With less than 4 months to go until the presidential election the signs are that this will be the biggest political betting event of all time. Probably because of the way that Trump is viewed with extremes on both sides this contest is getting more attention from punters than previous reces. So far on the Betfair exchange alone getting on for more than £90m has been matched. Heaven knows what this will be by November 2nd. The biggest market is,…

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The Strange Rebirth of Liberal Unionism

The Strange Rebirth of Liberal Unionism

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What is Liberal Unionism? Is the current CON Government, actually a Liberal Unionist one?  Wikipedia has a history of the Liberal Unionist Party:. The most well-known Liberal Unionist arguably was Joseph Chamberlain, father of Neville, and for 19 days leader of the Opposition in 1906 after Balfour lost his seat in Manchester as part of the disastrous Conservative election defeat. Conservatives have called themselves Unionist for a long period and indeed it was the official name until the 1970s but…

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