The money moves sharply to the LDs in North Shropshire
A big day for the LDs and the PM
Tomorrow Johnson’s job could be at risk In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we should get the North Shropshire result – a by-election that has taken on a huge significance with the PM’s job possibly being on the line if this is not a CON hold. In the clip above veteran by-election watcher, Michael Crick, presses the Tory candidate who seems very reluctant to answer direct questions on the PM’s integrity. If, and it is a very big if,…
This video is a good introduction to tomorrow’s by-election
CON ahead in the betting on the eve of North Shropshire
Based on almost all the the by-election betting in the past year the betting markets have not been good prediction tools. These are wise words from Paul of the Poiticalgambler blog I will say it again. There really is nothing quite like a British by-election! The speculation and rumours are made for betting drama and the experts are frequently wrong..Remember Chesham and Amersham, where the Tories were [1.1] before losing by a 20% margin? Or Batley and Spen, where they were [1.25] before Labour…
A 2022 Johnson exit surges in the betting
After the huge rebellion of Tory MPs last night against BJ’s Covid plans the chances of BJ going early, perhaps next year appears increasingly likely. That is how punters are seeing it as the betdata.io betting chart shows. This is not the only big challenge that BJ has to cope with this week. Given what happened last night and the PM’s less than confident recent PMQ appearances then facing Starmer at lunchtime looks even trickier than usual. Then there is…
Tories back as betting favourite in North Shropshire
Quite why there has been a sharp move in the betting I do not know but as can be seen something has driven the market this afternoon. As those who have read my previous posts I had thought that the Lib Dem odds had just got too tight and maybe others are reading that as well. If anybody has any info please post it on the thread.
YouGov polls: From Hartlepool to North Shropshire
What I find interesting looking at the above table is just how well the Tories were doing in the early summer around the time of the Hartlepool by-election which of course became a Labour loss and a Conservative gain. This, f course, was at the peak of the vaccine bounce when Johnson’s government was getting the credit for the vaccine programme. That was not to stop the Tory loss the following month in the Chesham and Amersham by-election when there…