Trump at a 28% chance looks a good bet for the 2024 GOP nomination

Trump at a 28% chance looks a good bet for the 2024 GOP nomination

There’s a big piece in the New York Times this morning by Trump biographer, Michael Wolff in which he suggests that the former President will put his hat into the ring for the 2024 nomination. He writes: To write three books in four years about Donald Trump has been an immersion into his obsessions and fixations. This is why I know the obvious: Donald Trump will run for president again.This spring, in another of his compulsive bids for attention —…

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Some very encouraging polling worldwide and especially in the UK

Some very encouraging polling worldwide and especially in the UK

Vaccines work and the public realise that but we cannot be complacent. As we saw with MMR causes autism hoax perpetuated by Andrew Wakefield, aided and abetted by the likes of The Lancet and Private Eye we need to be ahead of the game. If I were Boris Johnson, I’d set up a non partisan group to continually counter anti vax nonsense on social media and elsewhere, get really universally loved people like David Attenborough, Dame Judi Dench, and Jürgen…

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Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election. This market from Ladbrokes is much more easier for me, will Starmer be Labour Leader at the next election and my inclination is to back Yes. Given how hard it is force out a…

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Opinium has the Midlands and the North recording the biggest falls in Boris’s approval ratings

Opinium has the Midlands and the North recording the biggest falls in Boris’s approval ratings

Overnight we have the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which includes the regular approval ratings. The chart takes the latest numbers by region and shows the changes since the firm’s May 13th poll when the PM’s “vaccine bounce” was at its peak. Thus in the May poll Johnson had a net positive rating in the Midlands of plus 29%. That is now down to minus 7 which makes a change over the two months of minus 36%. The figures…

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Another post-BoJo quarantine U-turn poll sees CON below 40% and LAB within 4%

Another post-BoJo quarantine U-turn poll sees CON below 40% and LAB within 4%

Both Survation and now YouGov showing the same broad picture Over the seventeen years since PB was established, we have had many polling shocks and the general approach when one firm reports what appears to be a shift is to state that we ought to wait to see if other firms find a similar picture. Well following on from Survation in the middle of the week we now have YouGov reporting a 4% CON lead – down from 13% the…

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Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated

Olympic over/unders – The USA might be overrated

The greatest show in sport has had its opening ceremony and some events have already begun. While this is a political betting site many of us retain an interest in the Olympic betting markets, perhaps simply because they used to be lumped in with politics in the ‘Specials’ section of bookies’ websites. Team USA are heavy favourites to top the medal table, being at most 1/12 to win most medals and 1/8 to win most golds. This is a feat…

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It is madness that someone who is not even an MP should be favourite for next LAB leader

It is madness that someone who is not even an MP should be favourite for next LAB leader

In any case Burnham was rubbish last time he stood I find it quite remarkable that ex-LAB MP and now Mayor of Gtr Manchester should still be the betting favourite to succeed. Starmer. For a requirement of the job is being an MP and it is not quite clear how Burnham would do that. I suppose a Burnham loyalist could decide to quit as an MP thus creating a by-election which Burnham would have to win. Another route could be…

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BoJo says it won’t happen – Punters make it a 72% chance further restrictions will come in this year

BoJo says it won’t happen – Punters make it a 72% chance further restrictions will come in this year

One of the more interesting betting markets at the moment is the above from Smarkets on whether there is going to be any reintroduction of COVID restrictions. The PM, of course, said that the lifting of legal enforced rules ended on Monday but punters remain to be convinced. I’m not so sure the betting markets have got this right. A key factor for Johnson is that he will face the Tory conference in the first week of October and it…

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