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Those betting that the Senate will vote to convict Trump should probably take heart from McConnell

19/1/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I’ve got £100 on at 3.65 on Betfair that the Senate will vote to convict Trump when it gets round to considering the decision of the House on impeachment and could cash out at a small profit. There’s a general view that Mitch McConnell will be hugely important in influencing the votes of his fellow GOP senators. Tomorrow morning while Trump will be at the air base for a ceremony on his departure McConnell will be with Biden and other…

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Trump bows out with the worst Gallup approval ratings ever for any President in 83 years of polling

19/1/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Gallup, the pioneer of modern political polling, has produced its final approval ratings on Trump which have him ending his term on a record low for any President. His 41% average approval rating throughout his presidency is 4% lower than for any of his predecessors. The pollster notes: Trump is the only president not to register a 50% job approval rating at any point in his presidency since Gallup began measuring presidential job approval in 1938. Likewise, he is the…

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Special relationship: the British right’s appeasement of Donald Trump

18/1/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Barring a much bloodier insurrection than the one mounted two weeks ago, Joe Biden will assume the presidency of the United States on Wednesday. Where does that leave the UK? Britain has long prided itself on its special relationship with the US, choosing to overlook the fact that the US tells France that is its oldest ally, that it has a strategic partnership with Israel and so on. For many Leavers, focusing on the Anglosphere was a central rationale for…

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Which of these countries will President Biden visit first?

18/1/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Whenever there is a new US President one of the first betting markets to appear is this one – where will be his/her first international visit. What I like about the above one from Smarkets is that it limits the list to six obvious ones. The Ukraine is also on the list but nobody had bet on it at the time of me doing my screen grab. We know that Biden is almost certain to be in the UK for…

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On Betfair punters make it a 73% chance that not enough Republican Senators will back the impeachment move

18/1/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The big question is which way will Mitch McConnell go At the start of a momentous week in US politics the big question is whether the Senate is going to follow the the House of Representatives’ move last week and pass a resolution impeaching the outgoing president. It looks as though this decision will take place after president Biden has been inaugurated and that the first weeks of his administration could be dominated by the impeachment question. The key figure…

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Two things we don’t yet know

17/1/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Donald Rumsfeld once famously said: “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know”. For that, he won the Plain English Campaign’s Foot In Mouth award…

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Where will Trump be on Midday of inauguration day?

17/1/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Who would have thought Donald Trump, a man in his 70s, could maintain an election for over two months but even Trump has now bowed to the inevitable and realised not even inciting an insurrection will stop Joe Biden becoming President on Wednesday. The sore loser that Trump is means he has already said he won’t be attending Biden’s inauguration and the reports are that on the morning of the inauguration Trump will head to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm…

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YangGangAgain? – Betting on the next Mayor of NYC

16/1/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

, Sadiq Khan is cruising to victory in the delayed London elections, but it’s all to play for across the pond. Bill de Blasio is term-limited, and Democrats have 5 months to choose his successor (in their primary, the Republicans have little chance in the general). There are 38 candidates who have filed and the frontrunner is the both the wildcard and the only one you may have heard of… Andrew Yang (2/1 at Ladbrokes) may have come 9th in…

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