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There’s a big piece in the New York Times this morning by Trump biographer, Michael Wolff in which he suggests that the former President will put his hat into the ring for the 2024 nomination. He writes: To write three books in four years about Donald Trump has been an immersion into his obsessions and fixations. This is why I know the obvious: Donald Trump will run for president again.This spring, in another of his compulsive bids for attention —…

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Overnight we have the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which includes the regular approval ratings. The chart takes the latest numbers by region and shows the changes since the firm’s May 13th poll when the PM’s “vaccine bounce” was at its peak. Thus in the May poll Johnson had a net positive rating in the Midlands of plus 29%. That is now down to minus 7 which makes a change over the two months of minus 36%. The figures…

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Both Survation and now YouGov showing the same broad picture Over the seventeen years since PB was established, we have had many polling shocks and the general approach when one firm reports what appears to be a shift is to state that we ought to wait to see if other firms find a similar picture. Well following on from Survation in the middle of the week we now have YouGov reporting a 4% CON lead – down from 13% the…

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The greatest show in sport has had its opening ceremony and some events have already begun. While this is a political betting site many of us retain an interest in the Olympic betting markets, perhaps simply because they used to be lumped in with politics in the ‘Specials’ section of bookies’ websites. Team USA are heavy favourites to top the medal table, being at most 1/12 to win most medals and 1/8 to win most golds. This is a feat…

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In any case Burnham was rubbish last time he stood I find it quite remarkable that ex-LAB MP and now Mayor of Gtr Manchester should still be the betting favourite to succeed. Starmer. For a requirement of the job is being an MP and it is not quite clear how Burnham would do that. I suppose a Burnham loyalist could decide to quit as an MP thus creating a by-election which Burnham would have to win. Another route could be…

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One of the more interesting betting markets at the moment is the above from Smarkets on whether there is going to be any reintroduction of COVID restrictions. The PM, of course, said that the lifting of legal enforced rules ended on Monday but punters remain to be convinced. I’m not so sure the betting markets have got this right. A key factor for Johnson is that he will face the Tory conference in the first week of October and it…

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