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Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the resources of The Elections Centre

Saturday, March 17th, 2018

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Can You Purchase Tramadol Online Several recent up-dates and have been made to the follow link Elections Centre website that should interest followers of Politicalbetting as we approach what appear to be an intriguing set of May local elections. The website also has two important additions – a new section covering council by-elections and another that hopefully will push the local elections database beyond the million candidate mark.

Coupons For Tramadol Online The coun source link cils compositions calculator enter site  now covers the position up to and including last May’s local elections. There are other websites that track recent changes, particularly useful when councillors switch party allegiance or vacancies arise, but no-one else as far as we know lets users look at each council’s composition over time. In the case of the London boroughs, of course, the starting year is 1964. Another modification is that the data are now arranged in descending rather than ascending year order, figuring that most people want to focus on recent electoral history. Summary data from both the 2016 and 2017 May local elections have been added to what we refer to as ‘theme’ and ‘year’ tables. Those familiar with the Local Election Handbook will know that these tables replicate the summary information contained in that series. So, those looking for data on turnout, contestation, the fate of incumbents, numbers of women standing and elected, for example, then the the Uk Tramadol Online med tables would be the place to start:

http://hudsonriverpilots.com/hudson-river-pilots-response-to-anchorage-proposal/?share=facebook Alternatively, if the user wants to view the overall picture or examine each party’s performance in specific authorities then the year tables are more useful. So, with one eye on May 3 people may want to note how the parties fared in the 2014 equivalent local elections, the proportion of seats contested last time compared with this and the likely efficiency of each party’s votes to seats conversion. Of interest will be party shares of votes and seats for each council. The parties of interest are Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, UKIP, Independents and Others. In the case of Wales, Plaid Cymru is added.

http://g-lab.ca/55index.php We’ve been covering council by-elections since the early 1980s. In the early days, there were very few published sources for these data but that has changed markedly over the past decade. Some websites specialise in alerting everyone to new vacancies and impending by-elections while others provide invaluable background information about each contest. Another group of sites provide details of each result, whether the seat represents a gain/loss and in some cases the change in vote share since the last May election. A frustration for us has been that sites often overlook the percentage turnout of voters and/or the ward electorate. Most (though still not all!!) council websites contain these figures but finding the relevant page is sometimes a challenge.

http://archangel-michael-hospice.com/about/ Our frustration is now over, it appears. One of the growing legion of election enthusiasts is now sharing his extensive b http://ejensen.com/images/canada-goose/Reservations.aspx y-election data with us . The data include by-elections from the beginning of each May (i.e. coincident with the main May elections) through to the following April. The series, thus far, begins in 2015-16. The most recent file covers the period since May 2017 but please don’t expect up-dates to occur on the Friday morning following the latest batch of Thursday contests.

http://pane-bistecca.com/category/walnuts-baumnuesse/?print=pdf-search The huge merit in these new files is that the author includes not only the electorate and turnout data but a wealth of hitherto difficult to extract information. For each by-election there is also a list of the candidates, the name of the previous incumbent and the cause of the vacancy. Useful summary sheets provide an overview of seat gains and losses, the results in chronological order as well as breakdowns by type of authority (London, metropolitan boroughs etc) and country/region.

Purchasing Tramadol Online Please leave feedback via email on the website if you like this new development or have suggestions for ways in which it might be presented differently.

http://novimet.com/pt/search/yumiaoia.cn Our own data on by-elections (more than ten thousand results and counting) covers a much longer period but we have never recorded details of the candidates standing, only the parties represented on the ballot paper. Nevertheless, depositing these data online is something that we’ve discussed and in principle agreed to do. Watch this space, therefore.

http://avancebuilders.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/wp-plugins.php Finally, a new development for a long-term project. The British Local Elections Database, available at the data archive at Essex University, contains results for council seats from the late nineteenth century onwards. At the last count the database contains details for over nine hundred thousand candidates that have stood for local election over the past 130 years. Although the data include all elections held since the 1973 reorganisation the period 1945-1972 is patchy and is largely restricted to the former county boroughs.

go to site However, Alan Willis has been busy rummaging through the local newspaper archives that have recently become available online. He has compiled a series of 27 spreadsheets (no elections held in 1948) for the more than three hundred non-county boroughs, ranging alphabetically from Abergavenny to Yeovil . For some authorities the information is reasonably good but for others it is not. We are appealing for assistance in building the data coverage. So, for those who might have newspaper clippings stored in the attic or know of alternative online sources for some of the missing data then look at the current data and get in touch. Help us past the one million candidate mark!

Michael Thrasher

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The uncertainty over Brexit and TMay are set to make this year’s locals more significant than usual

Monday, February 26th, 2018

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One things for sure — TMay’s Tories will struggle to match last year

We are little over two months away from this year’s local elections which because of the febrile political situation could have wider consequences than just who runs the local council.

Generally the bookmakers don’t take much notice of these elections and it is not often that we see betting markets. So Ladbrokes move to open the first ones for this May suggests that something is in the wind. The Tories are odds on to hold Kensington & Chelsea, Labour to gain Wandsworth and the LDs Richmond upon Thames.

One of the big problems with the annual local elections is that it’s hard to find valid comparisons with previous years because different seats come up in each cycle.

In order to trying to provide a set of standard data for each years elections the BBC and Rawlings and Thrasher each produce their own assessment of the National equivalent vote share after the election.

The chart above shows the BBC’s projected national vote over the last 5 years for the main national parties.

    Tramadol Cheap Last year’s locals were held in the hothouse atmosphere of the general election campaign and it will be recalled that Mrs May made her highly publicised visit to the Palace on the day before. This was when “strong and stable” was riding high and hadn’t become a term of derision.

This year’s elections are a much tougher prospect for the blue team. The bulk of the media focus will be on London where the borough elections are taking place and the signs are that the Tories are doing less well there than in the rest of the country. London is traditionally where Labour does particularly well and expectations are running high.

What’s perceived as a poor set of results could be the trigger for a leadership move against TMay.

Mike Smithson




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Setting the scene for the May local elections –

Friday, February 23rd, 2018

Party gains and losses over 40 years

Thanks to David Cowling, former head of political research at the BBC, for compiling this table.

Mike Smithson




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London falling – a look at next May’s elections in the capital

Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017

 Stodge give us his predictions

If a week is a long time in politics and there’s plenty of evidence for that at the moment, perhaps eight months will seem a veritable eternity.

Assuming the Earth hasn’t crashed into the Sun or the zombies have taken over or we haven’t had another General Election, May 3rd 2018 will see the next big test of public opinion with the year’s round of local elections and of particular interest will be the London Borough elections.

As Kylie Minogue once suggested “all you can do is step back in time” and if we go back to 2014 the world was a very different place. Labour had an excellent night winning control of 20 Boroughs and taking over 1,000 seats. The Conservatives ended with 612 Councillors in nine Boroughs while the Liberal Democrats lost nearly half their seats ending with 130 councillors and control of just one Borough. UKIP won 12 seats and the Greens four.

In terms of vote share, Labour won 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 26% and the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on 10% each.

The following year’s General Election saw Labour win London by 44% to 35% over the Conservatives with UKIP and the Liberal Democrats on 8% each.

This year saw Labour consolidate their lead in the capital with the Conservatives losing six seats to end on 21 and the Liberal Democrats moving up a net two to three leaving Labour with 50 seats.

With post-election polls showing Labour moving into a small lead it seems 2018 could be another big year in the capital for the Reds.

Looking at the 32 Boroughs, it’s hard to envisage change in many of them – Buy Generic Tramadol Online Newham and http://g-lab.ca/orbit/pause-black.png Bromley being good examples – but where could we see changes in control next year?

Buy Cheap Tramadol Online Uk Barnet is an obvious place to start with the Conservatives enjoying an overall majority of just one. Both Hendon and Chipping Barnet were held by the Conservatives in the General Elections but both are knife edge marginals and will be high on the Labour target list. At present, a Labour win across the Borough seems inevitable.

Ordering Tramadol Online Illegal Bexley has a Conservative majority of 27 and in truth while Labour ran the Borough at the height of the Blair years (2002-06), the recent election only brought the Party’s vote back to 2005 levels. Yes, the Conservative majority may well be reduced but it won’t be toppled at this time.

enter Bromley has always had a Conservative majority except for a brief period of NOC after the 1998 elections. 2014 returned a huge majority of 42 for the Blues and while that may be trimmed slightly it won’t be overturned.

follow Havering is a rarity in London having a large bloc of Residents. One group from East Havering sits alongside 22 Conservatives and forms a working majority of six over a motley group of other Residents, UKIP, whose six councillors formed half their London strength and a couple of Labour Councillors.

It’s a very hard one to read and Labour picked up votes in Romford trimming Andrew Rosindell’s majority. If nationally the Conservatives are doing poorly, the Borough is likely to shift into further

NOC though it seems unlikely the UKIP councillors will survive.

Order Tramadol Online Overnight Shipping Hillingdon has a Conservative majority of 19 but the 2017 General Election results suggest Labour is on the march. Boris Johnson saw his majority slashed to just over 5,000 (I can see the book “Were you still up for Boris?” selling well in 2023) and Nick Hurd lost ground to Labour in Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. As a long shot for a Labour gain at Borough level, this might be a good bet.

http://bruggens.com/?flia=6 Kensington & Chelsea: Recent tragic events notwithstanding, the local Conservatives have a majority of 24 but as everyone knows Labour won Kensington in one of the huge upsets of the General Election. Whether this presages a change in local control remains to be seen but the days of Kensington & Chelsea as a solidly Tory stronghold seem to be coming to an end.

http://creativeandcultural.com/store/aj-evans/?perpage=25 Kingston: The Borough has oscillated between periods of Liberal Democrat control and NOC since the 1980s but in 2014 the Conservatives returned in strength and cleared the Liberal Democrats out at Parliamentary level the following year but the Conservative majority is only 6. Perversely, a Labour recovery could damage Liberal Democrat prospects in Wards like Tolworth, Canbury and Norbiton. I’d expect the Liberal Democrats to be the largest party but gaining overall control means winning six or seven seats.

Buy Cheap Tramadol Richmond: Another borough which has shifted between Conservative and Liberal Democrat control over the years but in 2014 the Conservatives enjoyed a majority of 24 and ousted Vince Cable from Twickenham the following year while Zac Goldsmith was returned with a massive majority.

Two years on and everything has changed – Vince is back with a big majority and Zac got back by a wafer-thin majority. All this points to a Lib Dem resurgence locally and it’s quite possible the Party could regain control.

Can You Purchase Tramadol Online Sutton: How can this be a marginal I hear you ask? The LDs enjoy a massive majority of 34 over the Conservatives but the Borough is now two very different political areas. In the east, Tom Brake held off a Conservative challenge to retain Carshalton & Wallington but in the west Paul Scully quadrupled his majority and the seat is safer for the Conservatives than at any time since 1992.

In addition, the LDs have run the Council for over 30 years and there may simply be a mood for change. I expect strong Conservative gains in the Sutton constituency and if Labour recovers in Carshalton it could be enough to deprive the LDs of their majority.

get link Wandsworth: The Conservative “flagship” Borough but the 2017 General Election results told a different story with Battersea turning Labour and Putney now a marginal. Of course, the Conservatives kept control throughout the Blair years. However, Labour has been making slow headway and the Conservative majority is now just 18. I think this could be overturned.

go to site Westminster: Whisper it quietly but if you’re looking for an upset this is the place. The Conservatives have always run Westminster and currently have a majority of 28. However, Mark Field saw his majority in Cities of London cut by two thirds and he is facing a strong Labour challenge next time.

It’s not inconceivable that against a deeply unpopular Conservative Government, Labour couldoverturn this majority.

To conclude, my early predictions for 2018 in London:

Barnet: Lab Gain

Bexley: Con Hold

Havering: NOC Hold

Hillingdon: Lab Gain

Kensington: NOC Gain

Kingston: NOC Gain

Richmond: LD gain

Sutton: NOC Gain

Wandsworth: Lab Gain

Westminster: Lab Gain

To my knowledge, there are no betting markets up for these elections yet but I’ll come back to these periodically as the election approaches.

go Stodge is a long-time poster on PB



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Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it right yet again

Friday, May 5th, 2017

On Tuesday afternoon professor Steve Fisher who runs the Elections etc website produced his predictions for the locals which were very different from what other academics and analysts were saying.

His projected numbers particularly for the LDs ran very much against the narrative. This was my response in a Tweet.

It might be recalled that well before the last general election professor Fisher started predicting that the Conservatives were going to get a majority all and all the other pointers suggested that it was going to be a hung Parliament.

Fisher is also a leading part of the team behind general election exit polls

He was dead right about GE2015 and I have learned to take him seriously.

Well done.

Mike Smithson




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Huge CON gains, LAB collapse UKIP wipe out – the story of the night do far

Friday, May 5th, 2017

Thanks to RobD’s great resource here part is featured above. We have a brilliant tracker of what’s happening.

The virtual wipe out of UKIP and the switch of those voters has put the Tories in an extraordinarily powerful position as the numbers shows. This all augurs well for TMay’s party on June 8th.

The LDs have put on votes but look set to end as seat losers.

The super mayoralty results will mostly come during the day and it is hard to see anything other than big CON victories.

Mike Smithson




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For the latest numbers on what seems a bad night for LAB check out RobD’s great spreadsheet

Friday, May 5th, 2017

Rob’s great resource is here and part of what it is showing is featured above.

This is better than anything you’ll find elsewhere.

Mike Smithson




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Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013.

Mostly the seats being contested are in the old shire counties so this is not fertile territory for Labour in any circumstances period as can be seen. The Tories completely dominated last time these were fought.

2013 was the third year of the coalition waspretty bad year for the Lib Dems. It was also when UKIP reached it’s high point. It’s 20%+ vote share on that day 4 years ago, however only produced 145 seats.

What it does mean is that there are a lot of UKIP votes there to squeeze and given the way the national polls have been going then that is going to be the main driver of the likely Conservative success.

The other set of English elections are for the new elected Mayor position in the combined local authorities. Andy Burnham is the Labour contender in Greater Manchester while in Birmingham the Conservatives have got high hopes of taking victory which will be a huge blow to Labour.

There are also local elections in Scotland and Wales and here the seas were last contested in 2012 just after the famous “Omnishambles budget” and Labour’s speak in the last Parliament. This means that we can expect considerable losses for the red team.

The Scottish local elections use a complex form of PR where as in Wales it is standard first past the post.

This is the first time ever that the local elections have taken place in the middle of a general election campaign so it is likely that national issues will play a more important part than usual.

Mike Smithson