Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category


With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers

Tuesday, August 4th, 2020

Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job

click As the the Daily Beast reports:

go here ..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the world,’ without elaborating. When Swan looks at the chart, it becomes clear Trump is only considering death as a proportion of coronavirus cases—not as a proportion of population, which shows the U.S. is faring very badly

source There’s little doubt that the pandemic will continue to dominate the campaign up to election day on November 3rd and inevitably the media focus’s on things like the exchange above. The incumbent’s approach does not inspire confidence.

Mike Smithson

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Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely

Tuesday, August 4th, 2020

New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party

Purchase Tramadol Overnight The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones. With the pandemic still sweeping large parts of the US many individual states have been prepared for many more voters to want to cast their ballots in the November 3rd election without exposing themselves to the risk that going to the polling station in person might entail. The US political site Politico is reporting on private polling on the differential response of supporters of the two big parties that the Trump attacks might be creating. It noted:

enter site “..Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has claimed, without evidence, will lead to widespread voter fraud. A potentially decisive slice of Trump’s battleground-state base — 15% of Trump voters in Florida, 12% in Pennsylvania and 10% in Michigan — said that getting a ballot in the mail would make them less likely to vote in November.. Trump won each of those states by a thin margin in 2016, and less than 1% of Joe Biden voters said getting a ballot mailed to them would make them less likely to vote. Overall, 53% of voters in Florida and about half in Michigan and Pennsylvania expressed health concerns about casting their ballots in person and prefer voting by mail in November.”

enter site My experience of UK elections is that the postal voters are generally older and frailer than those who turn up in person and they are more likely to edge towards the Conservatives. I’m sure the same is replicated in the US. Trump’s attacks might be preparing the ground for him being defeated but could cause fewer of his backers to actually cast their votes.

Mike Smithson

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Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

enter The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%.

Order Tramadol Cod Next Day Delivery I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value might be in backing Trump, he may also be relying on electoral chicanery.

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Some Trump (sore) loser bets

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

go here StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election.

go site I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election.

Tramadol Medication Online The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office is clearly defined as Cheap Tramadol By Cod ‘Refuse defined as being publicly announced by Trump and not attending the inauguration in Jan 2021.’ I think I’ll stick to laying Trump over on Betfair, at slightly lower odds of just under 2/1.

Tramadol Order Online If you’re tempted to back the 10/1 on Trump pulling out of the 2020 campaign I think you’re better off backing Mike Pence over on Betfair to be the winner of the 2020 election or the GOP nominee at 220/1 and 30/1 respectively.

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WH2020: We need a market on who will President on January 21st – the day after inauguration

Friday, July 31st, 2020

Could Trump get away with sitting tight and refusing to budge?

go site Following his Tweet yesterday suggesting that the Presidential election on November 3rd should be postponed there has been a huge amount of speculation about what Trump will do if if he doesn’t win re-election which based on current polling looks very unlikely.

Buying Tramadol Online Cheap This is from Susan Glasser in the New Yorker: So, sorry, we cannot just ignore it when the President threatens to cancel an election. This is the kind of statement that should haunt your dreams. It is wannabe-dictator talk. It is dangerous even if it is not attached to any actions. And those who think that some actions will not follow have not been paying attention. My alarm stems from having covered Russia when Putin was dismantling the fragile, flawed democratic institutions that the country had established after the fall of the Soviet Union. It stems from reading history. It stems from having watched the past four years in America, where, day by day, the unthinkable has happened and been justified, rationalized, and explained away.

There are real concerns that Trump will refuse to accept the result and sit tight. What he does have which could put them in a very powerful position is controlling the levers of power right up to 9 am on January 20th which is the inauguration day. Until that moment he remains Commander-in-Chief.

We are already seeing some of the lengths that he is going to at the moment sending federal troops to various cities to underpin his position. The questions are would he dare to force himself on the nation for another 4-year term and what can be done to stop him?

What is interesting is how his moves are creating new political movements the most striking one of which is the Wall of Moms which was set up in Portland as a line of defence against rampaging federal forces.

An interesting bet in this context would who will be president on January 21st the day after the inauguration. So far I’ve not seen this put up by any bookie but my guess is that the odds on that happening would be better than those on Trump winning the election itself and that is very scary.

Mike Smithson


Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

Thursday, July 30th, 2020

The only way that Trump’s controversial postpone the election move could become a reality would be if senior Republicans were ready to go along with it. So far that backing seems to be absent.

Under the heading click “Trump floats a ‘delay’ in the election. None of his usual allies are on board” the New York Times reports that top Republicans quickly rejected the move.

Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election, and we should go forward,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader..Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, dismissed Mr. Trump’s suggestion in a TV interview said: “ source url Never in the history of the country, through wars, depressions and the Civil War, have we ever not had a federally scheduled election on time, and we’ll find a way to do that again this Nov. 3,”

That really rules it out. Trump is going to get nowhere if figures like McConnell are rubbishing idea.

On Betfair it is now a 64% chance that the Democrats will retake the White House on November 3rd

Mike Smithson


His Highness, King Donald the First, the Great Usurping Caesar, violator of the constitution is now talking about delaying the election

Thursday, July 30th, 2020

Donald Trump’s tweet is quite interesting for those of us betting on this year’s Presidential election. Quite frankly it would require an act of Congress to change the date of this November’s election from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. It would require all 50 states to go along with this, which I cannot see happening.

If there’s no election Trump’s mandate expires next January and Nancy Pelosi would take over. I suspect this might be more of a ploy do discredit the result of November’s result, absent a Biden landslide, to allow Trump to try and ignore the result, but as above, Nancy Pelosi would take over the Presidency on January 20th.

So if I had to bet, I’d bet on November’s election to take place on time.

Of course today’s tweet might be a giant dead cat, so large you can see it from the moon.

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The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50 million of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day

Friday, July 24th, 2020
See the total matched top right

What having a controversial figure in the White House does to the betting

Above is a screenshot of the Betfair market on who will be next president. We’ve talked about the odds on this for well over a year but what is striking this afternoon is how close the total matched is to £50m. That we should get to that sort of total with more than 3 months to go until November 2nd is quite extraordinary and this will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of all time.

Just compare it with PB’s first White House race seven months after the site was launched in 2004. Then the total amount matched on Betfair was £30m+ and we thought that that was a lot of money.

What makes this battle really interesting to punters is that the incumbent, Mr. Trump has barely been out of the news since he was inaugurated on January 20 2017. His first term has seen one controversy after another and the headlines have come thick and fast. The big question is can he be beaten on November 2nd and now there’s speculation that he might try to remain there even if he loses.

The US constitution imposes a two term limit and the general rule is the incumbents seeking re-election generally do it. The polls this time, however, have been pointing to a clear Biden victory and the national and key swing state polls have been bad news for Trump. But there’s a long time to go.

On top of the main WH2020 next president market there’s a huge range of betting possibilities and expect more of them once Biden and Trump are confirmed as nominees next month.

There are many other outlets for betting as well as Betfair but we don’t get the same detailed data.

Mike Smithson