Archive for the 'Swinson' Category


All three main party leaders are in negative ratings territory with Corbyn’s numbers the worst

Wednesday, October 30th, 2019

Latest YouGov favourability trackers (FW Oct 23/24)

If you had followed the 2017 General Election only through the prism of leader ratings then the actual outcome with the Labour recovery would have been less of a surprise. For these were showing that Theresa May’s numbers getting steadily worse and that Corbyn’s were improving very rapidly in the run up to election. Indeed by election day Corbyn had jumped out of negative territory.

The ratings format I like the most and the one that tends to be be universal in the US is over favorability because there can be no ambiguity. Thus many non-LAB voters could honestly say they approve or are satisfied with Corbyn’s performance as leader but would view him unfavourably.

About 4 years ago YouGov started doing regular favorability ratings as a result of suggestions from me and have continued doing them to this day.

The latest numbers based on fieldwork that took place last week are in the panel above and as can be seen that in net terms Johnson and Swinson are about level. The latter suffers from being much less known and fewer people have an opinion of her.

Corbyn’s unfavourables continue to be very high and should be a serious worry for the party as it prepares to go into the campaign. His party’s hope, of course, is that we’ll see a repetition of the recovery at GE2017

In the next seven weeks there’ll be many voting intention polls coming out but relatively few leader ratings. My emphasis will be on the latter.

Mike Smithson


The whole Corbyn GNU story is based on a false premise – that MP numbers are there for a no confidence vote to be passed

Thursday, August 15th, 2019

The US President who took over after Kennedy was assassinated, Lyndon Baines Johnson, was famed for his sayings that wonderfully summed up political situations one of which was that the first rule of politics was that its “practitioners need to be able to count”.

If only MPs and the media circus had thought about that last night when Corbyn made his ludicrous pitch to try to embarrass new LD leader Jo Swinson.

For the main requirement for the circumstances envisaged to be apply is Johnson’s government being defeated on a confidence motion and that based on current numbers is highly unlikely. For the only way that this could get through is for three CON MPS to rebel. This is how Stephen Bush puts in in the I:

“Getting even three Tory names is a major difficulty, but clearing that hurdle on paper still isn’t enough. There are also the ten MPs who were elected in 2017 under Labour colours, but who have since quit because they believe that Jeremy Corbyn is unfit to be Prime Minister. This is due to what they see as, at best, toleration of anti-Semitism in the Labour ranks and a collection of political views that are dangerous to the country. Then there is Sylvia Hermon, an independent Unionist MP who opposes the Conservative party but has vowed never to make Corbyn Prime Minister due to his historical ties to the Republican movement. So to cancel out their votes you need not three Conservative MPs, but fourteen. There is no chance of attracting anything like that many Conservative rebels.

Jo Swinson got round to this during the afternoon in her letter to Corbyn. But this is good reminder that the chances of such a vote succeeding is highly unlikely under the current composition of the Commons.

Next story..

Mike Smithson


The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

Thursday, August 1st, 2019

Chart Evening Standard

The Evening Standard in its reporting of the latest Ipsos-MORI poll leads on what is increasingly becoming a difficult narrative for the red team – their position in the post BJohnson voting polls and the very weak leader ratings their man has. The paper notes:

The Ipsos MORI survey found 62 per cent of Britons now believe Labour should replace him before the country next goes to the polls, which could be within months, compared with 55 per cent a year ago.

Nearly twice as many people think he rather than Mr Corbyn would make the most capable prime minister — 52 per cent compared with 27 per cent for the Labour leader, who has faced months of criticism for its failure to tackle anti-Semitism among party members and the party’s fence-sitting over the issue of a second Brexit referendum.

Labour has been hit badly by the recovery of the LDs with a largish chunk of its GE2017 voting base now backing JSwinson and her team. The situation could be aggravated by what happens in Brecon and Radnorshire where many LAB GE2017 voters could be vulnerable to a squeeze message from the LDs. In a sense this has been accentuated by the post BJohnson voting polls – the yellows here being seen as the best party to impede the new man at Number 10. LAB was on 17% at the General Election in the seat. That numbers could be a lot lower overnight.

Mike Smithson