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Category: Scotland

Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it isn’t looking good, the tweets above indicate the worrying issues facing the Union right now. There’s some scope for hope, from this observer’s view it appears that debate is being framed as Scotland v. The Tories/Boris Johnson, with Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems absent from the debate. Once those parties join the debate we might see the arguments change. However relying on a party led by Richard Leonard to be the Gebhard…

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Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Regular PBers will know that at this stage before a general election I take much more notice of leadership ratings than voting intention polls. With the former those sampled are asked for simply an opinion whereas with voting questions they are asked to predict what they might or might not do in 3/4 years time when they could not even turn out. When tested in real elections such as 1992 and 2015 the leader ratings have got the outcome right…

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It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

In today’s Sunday Times we see another poll that’s great for the SNP and supporters of Scottish independence, I was struck by Professor Sir John Curtice’s analysis in the Sunday Times Although Scotland has had among the world’s highest proportion of Covid-related fatalities, based on excess deaths, Sturgeon has an approval rating of plus 60 for her handling of the crisis — measuring the difference between those who think she has done a good or a bad job. By contrast,…

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Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective. On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate…

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Ladbrokes make Sturgeon going his year an 11/10 bet

Ladbrokes make Sturgeon going his year an 11/10 bet

Are we heading for an SNP leadership contest? With rumours swelling that Scotland’s First Minister is to resign, the bookies make Sturgeon 11/10 to have left her post before the end of 2020, however it is odds-on at 4/6 she is still in charge. Sturgeon’s problem is that her party is very much divided and next year Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Scottish Parliament when issues such as how the SNP has run the country for…

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Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Your first big electoral test looks set to be the Scottish Assembly elections next year in a part of the UK where for decades your party was totally dominant. Recovering some of the ground lost there to the SNP might be an indicator that a general election victory could be in reach. The charts above from the Commons Library analysis of the last general election set out in stark terms how Scotland’s Westminster MP party distribution changed dramatically less than…

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Trouble over bridged waters. Boris Johnson’s plan to link Scotland and Northern Ireland

Trouble over bridged waters. Boris Johnson’s plan to link Scotland and Northern Ireland

While love can build a bridge, it’s far from clear that Boris Johnson can.  He planned one across the Thames, but that was scrapped.  Then he mooted one across the English Channel, to be shot down quickly.  Now he is shelling out public money to investigate the possibility of a bridge across the North Channel between Larne (half an hour from Belfast) and Portpatrick (50 lightyears from anywhere).  Is it going to be third time a charm for Boris Johnson?…

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