Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category


Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

Tuesday, May 26th, 2020

Mastercard Tramadol This market by Ladbrokes on Labour leading in a UK wide Westminster voting intention poll is an intriguing one, the most recent YouGov poll had the Conservatives 15% ahead, during the first phase of the pandemic that lead peaked at 24%, prior to the pandemic that lead was around the early 20s, so it is fair to say the Conservatives lead with YouGov has been consistently high. So what chance of Labour leading in a YouGov poll this year? The odds imply a 55.6% chance, to be honest that would normally seem quite high but given we’re in a global pandemic I can see lots of things happening that normally wouldn’t happen. We’ve now entered the eleventh year of Conservative or Conservative led governments, at the equivalent point in 1989, ten years into Mrs Thatcher’s government the Labour party led every single opinion poll from the 29th of May 1989 until after Mrs Thatcher announced her resignation in November 1990, so this is around the time governments become consistently unpopular, so history suggests Labour should start leading the polling, but historical precedent doesn’t always mean something will inevitably happen.

click What I think will cause Labour to start taking the lead is this accursed pandemic, one of the things I’ve consistently seen banded about is that UK has the second highest number of Covid-19 deaths, now there are mitigating factors for this, such countries do not use the same methodology and it doesn’t take into account other factors, and other metrics (such as deaths per 100,000 population) .

Tramadol Buy Online Cheap There is an irony in this government, a government led by Boris Johnson, aided & abetted by Dominic Cummings, suffering from a dodgy statistic, but as the old cliche goes, you live by the sword you, die by the sword.

click Coupled with the care homes disaster that Boris Johnson ‘bitterly regrets’ you can see how a narrative takes hold, especially with a government that seems to think the messaging of this pandemic was ‘stay elite’.

follow link So yes I can see Labour leading in a YouGov poll this year, even before we might see a second peak, an avoidable second peak which may occur to get the travails of Dominic Cummings off the front pages. But I’d probably want a bit more than 4/5 being offered, I’d probably a lot more comfortable if the bet covered any pollster that was a part of the BPC.

here source TSE

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Latest UK and US polling not good for Johnson’s government and Trump

Friday, May 22nd, 2020

For the first time since lockdown Johnson’s government gets negative YouGov approval rating

And in the White House race Trump is struggling against Biden

Mike Smithson

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The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

Saturday, May 16th, 2020

Tramadol Online Cheap Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government. On March 26th, just after the lockdown came in, the pollster that came out best at GE2019 found a net 43% in the government’s approval rating. Tonight’s poll has that down to a net minus 3. So overall a 45 point drop in seven weeks.

I’ve updated this to include the Opinium chart showing its trend.

Mike Smithson


Why it could be politically challenging prioritising the economy over people’s health

Thursday, May 14th, 2020

New Ipsos MORI poll finds little change during the lockdown

By far the biggest decision ministers will have to take over the coronavirus pandemic is when to ease the restrictions in order to to boost the economy once again. This is becoming increasingly urgent because of the sheer cost of so many being placed effectively on the government payroll

The message coming from government suggests that ministers are becoming more more eager to start to close down some of the controls in order to get things moving on the economy. The only problem is that this could be out of kilter with public opinion.

New polling from Ipsos MORI published overnight finds 53% saying the Government should prioritise peoples’ health, with more restrictions on public events, workplaces and travel. This compares to just 11% who think it should prioritise economic health by having less restrictions.  The rest say it should be both equally.

As can be seen from the chart these numbers are virtually identical to when the same question was asked in mid-March before the lockdown began.

The majority of those polled also think Briton’s economy will recover from the Coronavirus crisis at the same rate or more quickly than other countries.  However, 29%, say they think the British economy will recover more slowly, with 4% saying it will never recover. The detail shows that GE2019 CON voters are significantly more positive about the British economy’s ability to bounce back from this crisis, with 19% saying Britain will recover more quickly and 54% saying we will recover at the same rate as other countries.  This compares to 9% of 2019 LAB voters who think Britain’s economy will recover quicker and 34% who think we will recover at the same pace. 40% of Labour voters from 2019 think the economy will recover more slowly.

The former PBer, Keiran Pedley, who is now the Ipsos MORI research director said: Best Place Order Tramadol Online These findings suggest it may be a challenge for the government to take public opinion with it as lockdown restrictions are eased. Despite several weeks of lockdown, a majority of the public still insist the public health should be prioritised over economic health, with more restrictions rather than less if necessary. It is striking that these numbers are virtually unchanged since mid-March. Views may now shift as new rules are better understood but these findings just go to show how cautious the British public is at this stage.”

Mike Smithson


Some points from today’s new polling

Tuesday, April 21st, 2020

There’s a huge amount of doubt on whether the 100k a day testing target will be reached

click here How likely or unlikely do you think it is that the government will hit its target of testing 100,000 people per day for coronavirus by the end of the month? (YouGov)


Only a third intend to wear a face mask Providing you are able to get one, do you intend on wearing a face mask in public once lockdown is lifted?


Mike Smithson


Even LAB voters are giving Johnson positive leader ratings

Monday, March 30th, 2020

There haven’t been many opinion polls of late but this afternoon we’ve got the detail of the latest Deltapoll which includes its regular well/badly leader ratings. The detail is shown in the panel above together with what those sampled did at GE2019 and the referendum.

For me the most interesting numbers are the views of Johnson particularly the sub-set of LAB voters just three and a bit months ago.

Generally there is a very clear party split in views of a PM and what’s most striking to me is LAB GE2019 voters give him a net positive number. Interestingly LAB voters give both Johnson and Corbyn the same positive rating of 50%. I cannot recall a precedent in recent times.

Interestingly on another question the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak does best on who people would like to take over if Johnson had to stand aside to self-isolate. The designated stand in, Dominic Raab, comes bottom as this chart shows.

There is high level on don’t knows on this question.

Mike Smithson


Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

Wednesday, February 26th, 2020

It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has:

  • Starmer 53%
  • Long-Bailey 31%
  • Nandy 16%

A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th.

Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into account.

This has helped push Starmer to a 91% chance on Betfair.

Mike Smithson


Starmer gets the best ratings from both all voters and LAB members in new large sample Ashcroft poll

Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

He’s the only leader or deputy contender in positive territory

There’s a new large sample Lord Ashcroft poll that’s been published overnight that looks back at the general election particularly the reasons for the LAB defeat and looks forward to the coming LAB leadership ballot which starts later this month. The full report is well worth downloading.

The report also includes the findings of a series of focus groups which are worthy of a separate header in themself.

The part of the report that I’ve chosen to highlight here relates to the current Labour leadership contest which won’t be finalised until April 4th. As can be seen from the chart the ex-DPP, Keir Starmer comes out of this best and is the only one in positive territory amongst both all sampled and LAB members

The research also looked at the reasons for Labour’s fourth successive general election defeat. This is from Ashcroft’s summary: It was reported that Labour’s official inquiry “exonerated” Jeremy Corbyn from any blame for the election result. I can only assume this was a compassionate gesture for an already-outgoing septuagenarian leader, because no serious reading of the evidence could reach such a verdict. “I did not want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister” follow topped the list for Labour defectors when we asked their reasons for switching, go to link whether they went to the Tories or the Lib Dems, to another party, or stayed at home. Though a few saw good intentions, former Labour voters in our groups lamented what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country.

No doubt Corbyn loyalists will seek to discredit this because Ashcroft is a Tory but it should be noted that he carried out a similar process in 2005 after the party’s third successive general election defeat.

Mike Smithson