Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category


Even LAB voters are giving Johnson positive leader ratings

Monday, March 30th, 2020

There haven’t been many opinion polls of late but this afternoon we’ve got the detail of the latest Deltapoll which includes its regular well/badly leader ratings. The detail is shown in the panel above together with what those sampled did at GE2019 and the referendum.

For me the most interesting numbers are the views of Johnson particularly the sub-set of LAB voters just three and a bit months ago.

Generally there is a very clear party split in views of a PM and what’s most striking to me is LAB GE2019 voters give him a net positive number. Interestingly LAB voters give both Johnson and Corbyn the same positive rating of 50%. I cannot recall a precedent in recent times.

Interestingly on another question the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak does best on who people would like to take over if Johnson had to stand aside to self-isolate. The designated stand in, Dominic Raab, comes bottom as this chart shows.

There is high level on don’t knows on this question.

Mike Smithson


Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

Wednesday, February 26th, 2020

It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has:

  • Starmer 53%
  • Long-Bailey 31%
  • Nandy 16%

A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th.

Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into account.

This has helped push Starmer to a 91% chance on Betfair.

Mike Smithson


Starmer gets the best ratings from both all voters and LAB members in new large sample Ashcroft poll

Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

He’s the only leader or deputy contender in positive territory

There’s a new large sample Lord Ashcroft poll that’s been published overnight that looks back at the general election particularly the reasons for the LAB defeat and looks forward to the coming LAB leadership ballot which starts later this month. The full report is well worth downloading.

The report also includes the findings of a series of focus groups which are worthy of a separate header in themself.

The part of the report that I’ve chosen to highlight here relates to the current Labour leadership contest which won’t be finalised until April 4th. As can be seen from the chart the ex-DPP, Keir Starmer comes out of this best and is the only one in positive territory amongst both all sampled and LAB members

The research also looked at the reasons for Labour’s fourth successive general election defeat. This is from Ashcroft’s summary:

It was reported that Labour’s official inquiry “exonerated” Jeremy Corbyn from any blame for the election result. I can only assume this was a compassionate gesture for an already-outgoing septuagenarian leader, because no serious reading of the evidence could reach such a verdict. “I did not want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister” topped the list for Labour defectors when we asked their reasons for switching, whether they went to the Tories or the Lib Dems, to another party, or stayed at home. Though a few saw good intentions, former Labour voters in our groups lamented what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country.

No doubt Corbyn loyalists will seek to discredit this because Ashcroft is a Tory but it should be noted that he carried out a similar process in 2005 after the party’s third successive general election defeat.

Mike Smithson


The world is becoming even more partisan

Sunday, February 9th, 2020

Every so often we see some polling that much like the polling of Tory Party members last summer that saw a majority of Tory members will to countenance the destruction of the United Kingdom as well as significant damage to the economy to ensure their Brexit is delivered makes you go wow.

This polling from America which sees 62% of New Hampshire Democratic Party primary voters would prefer a meteor strike to wipe out all human life over Trump winning re-election produced a similar reaction from me to that polling of Tory Party members.

I mean we have a QAnon conspiracy theory pushing President, the same President who described protestors who chanted ‘Jews will not replace us’ as very fine people you can understand why Democratic Party primary voters feel the way they do.

We’re now living in an era that can be categorised as the end of the reason. I suspect one side goes low, the other side will not go high, but even lower, which ultimately means we all end up in the sewer.



If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

Sunday, February 2nd, 2020

This is from the statement from the paper.

The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening. Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate. While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

So I’m going to bed.

Mike Smithson


New LAB member polling has them rating Corbyn as their most favourable ever

Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

A reminder to LAB members about why so many GE2017 voters defected last month

Mike Smithson


Occasionally 52% of voters have impeccable judgment, here’s the proof

Sunday, December 29th, 2019

52% of voters are correct is not a sentence I expected to write but here we are. This finding isn’t a surprise, after all the star of the film, Bruce Willis, has himself said Die Hard is definitely not a Christmas film, after all film released in July 1988 can hardly be categorised as a Christmas film can it?



GE2019 – the general election that the pollsters mostly got right

Thursday, December 26th, 2019


I don’t want to move on from the general election before just looking back at the performance of the pollsters.

This election was important to them following  the disappointing final surveys that we saw in 2015 and 2017 when with one or two notable exceptions the polls were some way off.

Note  that national polling for Westminster elections generally takes place on a GB basis with Northern Ireland being excluded. So the comparisons should be made with what happened in the GB not the overall national UK vote totals.

As can be seen from the Wikipedia chart above the latest General Election saw the pollsters  getting the results pretty well in the right territory in their final polls. Top firms were Ipsos Mori and Opinium which had the right figures for the main parties.

Mike Smithson