Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Starmer gets the best ratings from both all voters and LAB members in new large sample Ashcroft poll

Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

He’s the only leader or deputy contender in positive territory

There’s a new large sample Lord Ashcroft poll that’s been published overnight that looks back at the general election particularly the reasons for the LAB defeat and looks forward to the coming LAB leadership ballot which starts later this month. The full report is well worth downloading.

The report also includes the findings of a series of focus groups which are worthy of a separate header in themself.

The part of the report that I’ve chosen to highlight here relates to the current Labour leadership contest which won’t be finalised until April 4th. As can be seen from the chart the ex-DPP, Keir Starmer comes out of this best and is the only one in positive territory amongst both all sampled and LAB members

The research also looked at the reasons for Labour’s fourth successive general election defeat. This is from Ashcroft’s summary:

It was reported that Labour’s official inquiry “exonerated” Jeremy Corbyn from any blame for the election result. I can only assume this was a compassionate gesture for an already-outgoing septuagenarian leader, because no serious reading of the evidence could reach such a verdict. “I did not want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister” topped the list for Labour defectors when we asked their reasons for switching, whether they went to the Tories or the Lib Dems, to another party, or stayed at home. Though a few saw good intentions, former Labour voters in our groups lamented what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country.

No doubt Corbyn loyalists will seek to discredit this because Ashcroft is a Tory but it should be noted that he carried out a similar process in 2005 after the party’s third successive general election defeat.

Mike Smithson



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The world is becoming even more partisan

Sunday, February 9th, 2020

Every so often we see some polling that much like the polling of Tory Party members last summer that saw a majority of Tory members will to countenance the destruction of the United Kingdom as well as significant damage to the economy to ensure their Brexit is delivered makes you go wow.

This polling from America which sees 62% of New Hampshire Democratic Party primary voters would prefer a meteor strike to wipe out all human life over Trump winning re-election produced a similar reaction from me to that polling of Tory Party members.

I mean we have a QAnon conspiracy theory pushing President, the same President who described protestors who chanted ‘Jews will not replace us’ as very fine people you can understand why Democratic Party primary voters feel the way they do.

We’re now living in an era that can be categorised as the end of the reason. I suspect one side goes low, the other side will not go high, but even lower, which ultimately means we all end up in the sewer.

TSE



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If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

Sunday, February 2nd, 2020

This is from the statement from the paper.

The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening. Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate. While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

So I’m going to bed.

Mike Smithson



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New LAB member polling has them rating Corbyn as their most favourable ever

Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

A reminder to LAB members about why so many GE2017 voters defected last month

Mike Smithson



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Occasionally 52% of voters have impeccable judgment, here’s the proof

Sunday, December 29th, 2019

52% of voters are correct is not a sentence I expected to write but here we are. This finding isn’t a surprise, after all the star of the film, Bruce Willis, has himself said Die Hard is definitely not a Christmas film, after all film released in July 1988 can hardly be categorised as a Christmas film can it?

TSE



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GE2019 – the general election that the pollsters mostly got right

Thursday, December 26th, 2019


Wikipedia

I don’t want to move on from the general election before just looking back at the performance of the pollsters.

This election was important to them following  the disappointing final surveys that we saw in 2015 and 2017 when with one or two notable exceptions the polls were some way off.

Note  that national polling for Westminster elections generally takes place on a GB basis with Northern Ireland being excluded. So the comparisons should be made with what happened in the GB not the overall national UK vote totals.

As can be seen from the Wikipedia chart above the latest General Election saw the pollsters  getting the results pretty well in the right territory in their final polls. Top firms were Ipsos Mori and Opinium which had the right figures for the main parties.

Mike Smithson




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The GE2019 polling race: The pollsters ranked by the CON lead % in their final surveys

Thursday, December 12th, 2019

Mike Smithson




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The final polls – almost

Wednesday, December 11th, 2019

Unless there’s another polling disaster Johnson is heading for a workable majority