Archive for the 'Opposition leader' Category


Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

Friday, June 19th, 2020

From Keiran Pedley – now of Ipsos-MORI

Purchasing Tramadol It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know. 

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go to link Starmer’s net satisfaction score of +31 has never been beaten by a leader of the opposition in the 40+ years we have been tracking public attitudes to them. Blair achieved a score of +31 in December 94 and +30 in March 95. Cameron achieved a score of +23 in April 09, with a similar proportion satisfied to Starmer but higher levels of dissatisfaction. Nobody else comes close.

follow site Yet when we look at our latest voting intention figures, Labour still trail the Tories by 5 points. The gap has closed from a lead of 22 before Starmer took over but the question remains: if Starmer is so popular, then why are Labour still behind?

follow site First, we should acknowledge that the party leader is only part of the story when it comes to voter preferences – the party brand matters too. Our polling shows that Labour went into the last election seen as more ‘divided’ and ‘extreme’ than the Tories and less ‘fit to govern’. Some 48% were unfavourable towards the party, with just 32% favourable. Whilst the proportion of the public that is unfavourable has fallen 9 points since then, the proportion that are favourable has barely moved (31%). It will take time to repair Labour’s reputation with the voters, even if the public do tell us they expect Starmer to change the party for the better (46%) not the worse (9%).

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click Another part of the explanation can be found in public attitudes to Johnson and his government. 48% are satisfied with the job Johnson is doing as Prime Minister and 49% are dissatisfied. Johnson’s net score of -1 is nowhere near as bad as Major achieved when Blair recorded his best satisfaction rating (-56) or Brown achieved when Cameron had his (-28). Similarly, net satisfaction with Johnson’s government stands at -11, which compares favourably to the ratings achieved by Major’s government (-78) and Brown’s government (-47) at the same time.

source link Rx Tramadol Online In short, whilst Starmer is achieving sky high satisfaction ratings, the current government and Prime Minister are nowhere near as unpopular as those faced by Blair and Cameron. In fact, the public still view Johnson as the more capable Prime Minister over Starmer, by the slender margin of 43% to 38%. So Starmer has not sealed the deal with the electorate yet. Clearly there is still work to do for team Starmer if they are going to get their man into Number 10. Labour needs to discredit the current government and Prime Minister more in the eyes of voters and make progress with demographic groups that have been hostile to the party in the recent past. This second point is important and worth reiterating. Labour’s problems with certain voters have not disappeared with Jeremy Corbyn. Our latest figures show the Conservatives holding a 27-point lead over Labour with those aged 65 and over. The party’s problems with leave voters, in Scotland generally and in the south-east of England are also well documented. 

see However, the scale of Labour’s task should not detract from how good Starmer’s personal ratings are 2 months in.  Not even Blair had a score of +31 after 2 months. Though by the time he reached +31 in December 1994, Labour were 39 points ahead in the polls, right now they are still behind.

Buying Tramadol For Pets Therefore, Starmer’s challenge is to consolidate his good start and then try to turn public goodwill towards him personally into Labour votes. Whilst 42% of Conservative voters and 52% of Lib Dems think Starmer is doing a good job – they are not yet saying they will vote Labour.  Meanwhile, although 48% of those aged 65+ are satisfied with the job he is doing, 6 in 10 say they will vote Conservative.  

source Nevertheless, the direction of travel is positive for Labour. The numbers show they have replaced the least popular leader of the opposition in 40+ years with one of the most – at least for now. The Conservative poll lead has shrunk since the election and the government faces serious challenges ahead navigating the COVID fallout and Brexit. If Starmer can sustain the positive first impression he has made with the public and that rubs off on his party, we should expect Labour poll leads to follow, especially if satisfaction with the government falls. This does not mean Labour wins the next election but earning the right to be heard again after such a big defeat in December will be a start.

Keiran Pedley

source link Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos MORI and tweets about polling and public opinion at @keiranpedley Posted in Labour leadership, Leader approval ratings, Opposition leader follow site | No Comments »


The current LAB/Corbyn approach raises the question: What are oppositions for?

Thursday, July 25th, 2019

here At the start of Francesco Rosi’s 1984 film of Carmen, there is a scene in which the bull, enraged but weakened by the fight, the loss of blood from wounds caused by lances and the many banderillas thrust into its head, is finally despatched by the toreador inserting a sword between the beast’s shoulder blades into the heart.  It mirrors the final scene when Jose, maddened by Carmen’s indifference, kills her in the same arena.  The scene does not make for easy watching, though the whole film is one which should certainly be viewed. Opposing a government is much like bull-fighting.  Before the final coup de grâce, the government must be fought, day in, day out, harried, attacked, relentlessly worried by the opposition on all fronts – at PMQs, in Select Committees, during committee stages, in the press, in every possible forum – and in a multitude of ways: Parliamentary procedure, questioning, motions, forensic analysis, debates etc. Tramadol Online Price No opportunity should be lost to keep the government under pressure  It must be kept on its toes, never allowed to rest, to take anything for granted; it must be weakened, it must be forced into errors and made to account for its actions.  Ministers must be made to explain themselves.  Inconsistencies and inaccuracies and woolly statements must be ruthlessly pounced on.  The opposition should, however hard this might be, have the mindset of a predator playing with its victim.  It is not easy but it can be done: think of John Smith and the way he could turn even a false start in the Grand National into a scornful dismissal of the haplessness of a country run by John Major.  Think too of Thatcher, who as a shadow Treasury Minister relentlessly attacking Labour’s budget plans, gave succour to the demoralised Tories (and did her own reputation no end of good when it came to the subsequent leadership election). Or Blair and Brown, who never let Major’s Tories off the hook in the years leading to their 1997 victory.

follow site Individually these measures may not kill the government or even get many victories.  But they can demoralise it and, importantly, sustain the opposition’s confidence.  They hone the opposition’s skills and help prepare it for government. They show the voters that there is an alternative.  And they lay the groundwork, they help create the opportunities, so that when the time comes that the government is so weakened or behaves so outrageously or seeks to do something harmful, the opposition can pounce.  And, crucially, an opposition doing this needs to accept that there may be a number of false starts, that the right opportunity will not necessarily present itself neatly packaged when it suits it, that it needs to be prepared to fail rather than spend its time finding excuses for doing nothing. Opposition is not about inertia and not interrupting your enemy.  (Even Napoleon did not follow his own dictum.) It is about probing, finding the weak spots, forcing your opponent to make mistakes, about creating opportunities and then taking advantage.

see url Predictably enough, Labour has opposed the Lib Dems attempt to have a VoNC in the new Johnson administration.  The reason seems to be that this would simply shore him up:  such attempts should only be made if they will succeed is the explanation. There may be something in this but in reality it means an opposition which is outsourcing its main function to internal opponents in the governing party.  It is abandoning the field of battle because it is worried about failing. It is, frankly, pathetic.

go It is an approach which would have elicited scorn from other successful Opposition Leaders.   The last successful VoNC in a government was on 28 March 1979 when Callaghan lost.  What is often forgotten is that in the preceding three years there had been 5 Motions of No Confidence.  All lost, of course.  But not pointless: the government was forced to defend itself. Thatcher honed her skills, learnt, became a better Opposition leader, used these as rehearsals so that when the time came and the opportunity to put a tired, exhausted, incompetent government overseeing crises in the streets and problems with Scotland and Wales, the opposition was ready.  The sword was plunged and hit its mark.

see What might be raised in a VoNC debate now?  Well how about:-

  • How the government will in the time available pass the legislation necessary to ensure even a No Deal Brexit – 6 Bills and a host of other measures.
  • What happens if those Bills are not passed.
  • Demands that the government publish the advice it has received in relation to the risks of a No Deal exit.
  • Demands that the government publish the legal advice it has received about the steps it can take in relation to a No Deal exit.
  • Demands for confirmation that the government will not seek to prorogue Parliament and what legal advice it has received in this regard.
  • What legal advice it has received about its obligations in relation payment of monies due to the EU in the event of a No Deal exit.
  • How the government is going to ensure compliance with the terms of the GFA.
  • Why the government has abandoned its manifesto commitment to seek an orderly withdrawal from the EU.
  • How the government is going to ensure that senior Cabinet Ministers and special advisors comply with the Ministerial Code and other relevant ethical codes.
  • How are British territorial waters going to be enforced post a No Deal exit.  What happens if access to European ports is denied or delayed to British fishermen seeking to export their catch.
  • What steps will be taken post 31 December 2019 in relation to permits for UK hauliers when the current arrangements come to an end.
  • How will cross-border data provision be managed – a subject which sounds boring but is critical to many businesses.
  • How will co-operation in law enforcement work. And so on.  There is no shortage of stuff to say, to expose the government’s ill-preparedness or to challenge its approach and force it and its supporters to come up with specificities not bluff and bluster and marketing slogans. This is exactly what an opposition should be doing.   It requires sharp, intelligent, forensic minds, MPs prepared to do their homework and coolly and relentlessly demolish a government led by a man who thinks that the phrase “ Not Betting against Britain” is a plan rather than a slogan.  Johnson is good at what lawyers term “ Arrested For Ordering Tramadol Online jury speeches”.  To deflate them you need a mind like a razor and the ability to skewer – not a jury speech of your own.

Tramadol Overnight Paypal Instead, there is a rally to demand a general election but no attempt within Parliament to use the tools put in place to try and achieve this outcome.  This is the action of a posturing coward.  Not an opposition leader who wants to become PM.  Or it is the action of someone who is perfectly content for these issues to be left unanswered, not dealt with, in the hope that any subsequent chaos can be blamed on the government and he can waltz into power on the back of it.  The idea that he might then have to deal with the chaos seems to have been forgotten in all the excitement of shouting about Tory austerity and attacking other opposition leaders.

Tramadol Cheapest Price For our Parliamentary democracy to work, we need a good, strong opposition.  Those who view with concern or worse the shift in policy resulting from an internal Tory party vote deserve an opposition.  Those who did not vote for this party or for this policy deserve an opposition.  The countries in the union which did not vote for this government or policy deserve an opposition.  The voters Labour claims to speak for deserve an opposition.  The people Labour claims to care about deserve an opposition.  The whole country deserves an opposition which does its job.  We do not have such an opposition.  For shame, Labour.  For shame. 


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