Archive for the 'Labour leadership' Category

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With the LAB leadership nomination stage coming to an end punters are getting a tad nervous about Starmer

Friday, February 14th, 2020
Betfair market movements from betdata.io

Today marks the end of the second stage of LAB’s leadership election – the period when CLPs and affiliated organisations have made their nominations.

As can be seen from the betting chart everything appeared to be going right for ex-DPP and Shadow BrexSec, Keir Starmer. Four days ago he reached his peak in the betting a 90% chance. That’s now started to edge down and as can be seen he’s now at 84%. It is hard to say what’s driving this because he has done so well with constituency parties and affiliated organisations.

For RLB this has most been a downhill battle from being a 50% betting chance just after the general election.

The next stage is the postal ballot with that closing on April 2nd and the result being announced on April 4th.

Mike Smithson



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Ashcroft poll: 73% LAB members say the antisemitism issue was invented or wildly exaggerated by Corbyn’s opponents

Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

And All segments, it seems, apart from LAB members rate Tony Blair as the best party leader of recent times



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“Continuity Corbyn” contender Long-Bailey gets the worst ratings in new LAB leadership poll

Thursday, February 6th, 2020

Good numbers for Starmer

While all the focus has been on Iowa the LAB leadership contest is trudging on with the postal ballot of the the selectorate not due until next month.

This poll, NOT of selectorate members but the regular phone poll from Ipsos-MORI of GB adults, adds further to Starmer’s position and no doubt his team will be more than ready to make this available when the postal election starts.

Labour has lost four general elections on the trot and the biggest requirement of the new leader, surely, is to look as though he/she could bring that run to an end.

Mike Smithson



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The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair

Wednesday, February 5th, 2020

Unless LAB members vote in a very different way in the postal ballot compared with what is happening at the constituency party level or else Keir Starmer makes some massive cock-up between now and April 2nd then he is an absolute certainty to succeed Corbyn.

One thing we are seeing is a marked increase in the numbers of local parties ready to give Thornberry their backing and she looks to have a better chance of making the postal ballot than appeared the case a week ago.

The ex-DPP is now almost the presumptive next Labour leader and no doubt will be giving thought to what he will actually do in the job particularly how he will deal with Johnson who doesn’t give the impression of being accountable to anybody.

In one sense the fact that there is unlikely to be an election before 2024 will give the time for Starmer to bed down.

The betting has seen a constant rise in Starmer’s position and that can grow.

Mike Smithson



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Another week starts and Thornberry continues to struggle finding CLPs to back her

Monday, January 27th, 2020
@CLPNominations

Keir Starmer: 44 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 18 Lisa Nandy: 10 Emily Thornberry: 3

As can be seen the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, continues to find the going tough in her effort to get on the members’ ballot. She needs 33 constituency parties but following her early rush she remains stuck on three. .

It had been thought that following the success of Nandy, Long-Bailey and Starmer in getting over the line then constituency parties might look at her position more positively. That might still happened but so far there’s very little indication of that .

The problem is that the rigid time scale means means that every batch of local party meetings that goes by without her getting nominations makes her task even greater and the chances are that she isn’t going to make it.

I cannot work out who benefits most from her absence on the ballot. I don’t think it will be Long-Bailey whose team has been pushing very hard over the past week with UNITE throwing its weight behind her campaign.

Meanwhile the money continues to go on Starmer who is now at a record high of a 76% chance in the betting on Betfair.

Mike Smithson



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With 49 CLPs now having decided just under two thirds are going to Starmer

Friday, January 24th, 2020

Keir Starmer: 32 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 7 Lisa Nandy: 7 Emily Thornberry: 3

After what has been the biggest night so far of CLP meetings the overall picture is looking broadly the same and the big outstanding question is whether the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry will make the cut.

Thanks to the excellent @clpnominations for his regularly updated Twitter feed for what is actually going on at the branch meetings keeping up an excellent running total of the LAB nomination race. His chart above gives a good geographical spread.

The big picture is that a consistent trend appears to be happening with just under two-thirds of constituencies going for the former Director of Public prosecutions and Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer. RLB and Lisa Nandy are currently level pegging on 7 with Emily Thornberry down at just 3.

The Twitter account of @clpnominations and many of the responses are a good place to look for the latest news and get a sense of the passion and feelings within the movement during this critical transition period.

What is clear is that those constituencies which nominated Corbyn in both 2015 and 2016 are sticking with with his chosen successor Long-Bailey while those that didn’t nominate in the last two leadership elections or went with candidates other than Corbyn are getting behind Starmer or Nandy.

We cannot assume that the constituency nominations are a good guide to how people will vote once the membership ballots goes out out in March but given the polling there’s little doubt that Starmer is worth his 69% chance that he’s been currently rated on the Betfair Exchange.

Mike Smithson



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LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starmer remains the firm favourite

Wednesday, January 22nd, 2020
Chart of Betfair market from Betda.io

Stamer’s big worry must be the length of the campaign

We have not looked at the LAB leadership betting since Jess Phillips dropped out and as can be seen from the latest chart the man movement has been for Lisa Nandy . This follows her latest union nomination moving her to within a whisper of getting onto the members ballot that goes out in March.

The remaining question is whether Emily Thornberry will make it onto the ballot. She is one of the better-known figures within the party as the polling has shown and performed well when she used to stand in for Corbyn at PMQs. prime Minister’s Questions. To get on the ballot she needs 33 CLPs to nominate her and that might be a tad easier given the other three all seem pretty secure .

On the face of it the prize looks set to go to Starmer and the main worry for his campaign , surely, is that there is a such long time to go before the ballots go out in March and even longer before the election closes in early April. The problem with so much time is that it does allow the possibility of of something emerging that could undermine him. Being the front runner means that those who are opposed to are going to to do what they can to try to impede his progress.

The latest such move comes from the chairman of the party, Ian Lavery, who is saying that the time has come for for a female leader and he has urged Starmer to stand aside .

Once we get to the postal ballot stage the series of TV debates and hustings could have a big influence on the campaign and provide a platform for one of the three others to trying to shine and make a case for themselves.

Mike Smithson



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New LAB member polling has them rating Corbyn as their most favourable ever

Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

A reminder to LAB members about why so many GE2017 voters defected last month

Mike Smithson