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Category: CON Leadership

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…

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The Boris numbers in these comparisons with Rishi and Keir should be worrying for the Tories

The Boris numbers in these comparisons with Rishi and Keir should be worrying for the Tories

The above YouGov polling came out last week but got overshadowed by the budget and I think they should be highlighted. For in all the comparisons listed Johnson trails behind Sunak and in all but two of them Starmer as well. The competence split where the Chancellor has a huge net lead over the PM is very striking. Just 34% regard the latter as competent compared with 52% who don’t. None of the three come out of the trustworthy question…

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As schools in England re-open CON members give EdSec Williamson a MINUS 44% rating

As schools in England re-open CON members give EdSec Williamson a MINUS 44% rating

A former Lib Dem anti-monarchy campaigner tops the list I always like this monthly table from ConsrrvativeHome which seeks to show what party members think of the Cabinet. This is one area where the EdSec Gavin Williamson has really struggled and as can be seen he is down to a net minus rating of 43.6% in the latest survey. These are terrible figures and must cast doubt his political future. In the betting Williamson is favourite to be the next…

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Has to be Hunt

Has to be Hunt

Boris Johnson is losing the support of his party. There are enough straws in the wind now to indicate his perceived usefulness is coming to an end, and his popularity is rapidly diminishing in the country. If there’s anything more likely to confirm MPs worries it’s the polling, and the most recent show him behind Keir Starmer as best Prime Minister and his support fracturing in the Red Wall. Many have had concerns about Boris all along, and many more…

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If You’re in a Glasshouse …..

If You’re in a Glasshouse …..

During Corbyn’s leadership, Labour was relentlessly attacked by the Tories, their supporters and cheerleaders in the press for the many failings which, they said, made Labour unfit to run the  country. Worth dwelling on the accusations for what they tell us about today’s Tories. A sympathiser with IRA terrorism: well-worn, repeated on every possible occasion and, combined with his associations with various dubious Palestinian groups and past statements about the causes of Islamist terrorism, the Tories happily painted a picture of…

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The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

Good news for the red team as their leader completes his first three months? The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10. One of the reasons as you look through the detail is that voters of just about all persuasions including Tories are reluctant to give the new LAB leader and former DPP…

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YouGov finds little evidence of people wanting to ease the lockdown

YouGov finds little evidence of people wanting to ease the lockdown

So far at least, if the polling above has this right, there is no real desire amongst the public in the UK to ease some of the lockdown restrictions. Every suggestion of things being eased in the poll found the majority of respondents wanting things to stay as they are. This suggests that there’s a broad acceptance of the reasons why this is having to be done and there’s no indication there there will be any change in the immediate…

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The rise and rise of Rishi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchange

The rise and rise of Rishi Sunak as seen on the Betfair exchange

What is really incredible about the Richi Sunak is that barely anybody had heard of him just 6 months ago. Now he is barely off the front pages, one of the key faces of the Johnson government and miles ahead of anybody else in the betting for Johnson’s successor as Conservative leader. Increasingly he is looking like the PM in waiting should something happen to Johnson in the short or long-term. It was in November less than 6 months ago…

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