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Category: By elections

Both the coming by-elections present problems for LAB

Both the coming by-elections present problems for LAB

After LAB lost Hartlepool and their lacklustre performance in this year’s locals the next two electoral tests also look problematical for Keir Starmer and his party. Next up on June 17th is the Chesham and Amersham by-election when Labour vote is likely to be squeezed by the LDs who came a second last time with LAB on just 12.9% of the vote. With Davey’s party throwing everything at the constituency the LAB vote is likely to be squeezed hard and…

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Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party

Chesham is the litmus test of how serious the Greens are as a party

Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens. Across the country, the thin Green tide advanced. Highlights included:– An increase in MSPs and pushing the Lib Dems into a clear fifth in Scotland;– Finishing fourth in Wales by vote – though no MSs, unlike the Lib Dems, who polled fewer votes;–…

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LAB gets its best Westminster by-election performance for five years at Airdrie & Shotts

LAB gets its best Westminster by-election performance for five years at Airdrie & Shotts

Should this go down as a LAB miss? Overnight we have had the result of the Airdrie and Shotts by-election which was held following the resignation of the former SNP MP to run for the same seat at last week’s election for the Scottish parliament. The general assumption was that this was always going to be an SNP hold and it has attracted little attention. The big interest comes in the actual result in the Wikipedia table above. As can be…

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Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

There’s a good by James Johnson in the Times on why the likely CON victory tonight in Hartlepool won’t be as dramatic as it sounds. He argues: …the constituency has a uniquely large Brexit Party vote from 2019. Looking just at seats where the Conservatives were in second place, this was the largest in the country — and the third-largest overall. It is one of only five of 650 seats where the Brexit Party share was above 20 per cent. …That…

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Just two days to go to Super Thursday and the Tories now an 83% chance on Betfair to take Hartlepool

Just two days to go to Super Thursday and the Tories now an 83% chance on Betfair to take Hartlepool

If punters have got this right then the Tories are heading for a sensational victory in the Hartlepool by-election on Thursday. The big driver today has been the second Survation constituency poll on Hartlepool showing an even wider gap than was reported four weeks ago. Then the Tories had a 7% lead. In the latest small sample poll, which was carried out from April 23rd to 29th, that is now 17%. The figures are with changes on the general election:…

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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…

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