The UK’s longest standing pollster has published their latest output and it is utterly grim reading for the Tories and Sunak. The lowest Tory share of in 45 years with Ipsos isn’t the most shocking finding. Sunak hitting 10% approval is dire given we have a de facto presidential system, particularly since the televised debates became a part of the election campaign in 2010. Sunak legacy is heading for him to be predominantly being the Tory leader who led them…
I remain of the view that the SNP will not do as bad as expected at the general election and this analysis does show some evidence for that. If SNP get back their don’t knows then it is possible. Whatever issues the SNP may have circa 45% of Scots back Scottish independence and the SNP remains the best vehicle to deliver that so if they can focus on that 45% then under FPTP then SNP should do better than three…
Longstanding readers of PB know that leadership ratings can often be a better barometer of electoral outcomes than standard voting intention polls and I wonder if we could see something similar in the West Midlands Mayoral election where current Tory incumbent Andy Street has a net positive ratings. I suspect the wider national polling will cost Street but if there was any liquidity in this market it might be worth a punt on Street. TSE update thanks to The Woodpecker…
The Times report that Three quarters of the 100 constituencies worst hit by sewage spills last year are held by Conservative MPs. Environment Agency data showed that discharges of raw sewage into seas and rivers doubled in duration last year to a record 3.6 million hours. Among the top 100 constituencies in England worst affected by the dumping, which typically happens when sewers are overwhelmed by heavy rainfall, 75 were held by Tory MPs. Three of the seats were held…
Because it happens so rarely I don’t mind admitting when I get it wrong and turns out I was wrong to criticise the Turnip Taliban who tried to deselect Liz Truss in 2009 when her affair with Tory MP Mark Field became public. I dismissed them as dinosaurs but turns out they were visionaries and I wish them well in their plan to oust Liz Truss at the next election, the clips above show why the only office is she…
I’ve thought for a while that the story about Angela Rayner’s living arrangements was all light and no heat and yesterday’s segment on the Politics Show just confirmed that. I cringed so much watching the performance by James Daly that my shoe size shrank by three sizes, he’s the one who made the complaint and that’s the best he can do. TSE
I am one of those people who still thinks the general election result will be better for the Tories than the current polls imply (although I am not ruling out a 1931 in reverse result) but I am intrigued by this analysis from the political data scientist of The Economist. This nowcast sees the Tories win just short of 200 seats which would be comparable to the 2005 general election result which every Tory would take right now. I still…
On Betfair you can get odds of 100/1 on Liz Truss to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, my money is on backing the lettuce laying Liz Truss in this market, it would be an act of political seppuku by the Tories to install her as leader, just look at the Ipsos polling on her. I really do worry about her lack of self awareness and denial about her disastrous stint as Prime Minister, somebody this deluded shouldn’t be working…