Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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Biden’s VP pick – the latest betting and trend chart

Monday, August 10th, 2020

The decision has to come this week

source site Over the next few days expect to see a lot more activity on the Biden VP pick market. This is a very hard one to call because there is only one voter -Biden himself and this is all about trying to read his mind and decide which of those said to be in the running best fit his needs.

Tramadol Overnight Paypal So what might appear logical to punters might not be that which find favour with Biden himself whose overwhelming priority is to be beat Trump and become the next POTUS.

go to link On paper Californian Senator Kamala Harris looks a good pick but there are reasons to doubt whether the personal chemistry is there. Harris’s big moment in the primary campaign was a highly personal attack on Biden himself which for a time put her up to favourite for the nomination.

http://hudsonriverpilots.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/349-1.gif Susan Rice, who has never fought an election, is favoured because she is know to have worked very closely with Biden during the eight years of the Obama administration. Will she be the one to pass the “gets on best with Joe test”?

follow link Whitmer has come into the frame in recent days following reports of a secret special charter flight she made the weekend before last from Michigan to Wilmington Delaware where Biden lives.

Tramadol Order Online Cod I’ve now bottled it in my betting and gone “all green on Betfair” – so I win whatever. I had been taking the view that Harris was not going to be the one.

Mike Smithson



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Biden’s answer to those raising questions about his age – get quizzed by Fox News WHILE pedalling on his bike

Monday, August 10th, 2020

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The polls maybe narrowing a touch but he’s still got a big lead

Coupons For Tramadol Online Probably the biggest question over Joe Biden’s WH2020 bid and his greatest vulnerability is his age. If he does win on November 3rd he will be 78 years old on the day of inauguration on January 20th next year.

http://g-lab.ca/iio-industrial-io-subsystem/ Already Trump, four years his junior at 74, is using this to to attack the Democratic presumptive nominee and make not so subtle suggestions that Biden might have dementia.

http://bdra.uk/committee/ So as we wait for Biden to announce who will be with him on the ticket in November his team took the opportunity to create what I assume was a completely contrived event above of which had him being filmed while out peddling on his bike.

http://ejensen.com/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596030039.2543320655822753906250 Buying Tramadol Online Uk One thing’s for sure – you cannot envisage Trump doing anything like that. The message from Team Biden is loud and clear – Joe was able to do this while at the same respond with what was obviously a joke answer suggesting surely that his mind is working OK.

http://pane-bistecca.com/category/curd-quark/?print=pdf-search All this makes his VP pick much more important than usual and over that he is taking his time. This is entirely his personal decision and the last thing he wants to do is make a move that impacts on the current positive narrative.

http://blog.enidhuttgallery.com/2020/07/25/ Since effectively winning the nomination in March Biden’s polling position has remained pretty solid at about 50%. Trump has found it difficult getting above 45% and the current average gap is about 7.8%. This puts Biden in a better position than Hillary Clinton at the same stage four years ago. A Politicalwire analysis has this:

100Mg Tramadol Online Of the voters that didn’t like either Trump or Clinton in 2016, the exit polls showed Trump winning them 47% to 30%. But that’s not happening this time. Polls show Biden with a huge lead over Trump among these voters, 55% to 21%.

http://bruggens.com/?pdc=14 But Trump is going to battle hard to keep his job and his opponents are not complacent. In the betting Biden is rated as a 59% chance.

Mike Smithson

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Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

Saturday, August 8th, 2020

Punters rush to bet on her after reports of secret face to face meeting with Biden

http://avancebuilders.com/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596046007.0889620780944824218750 In the early days of the Biden VP pick saga Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of the highly marginal state of Michigan, was one of the early favourites. Her state has been one of the worst hit by the pandemic and there was a highly public clash between her and the President after she was said not to have shown enough gratitude to Trump for his assistance.

Order Tramadol Cod Overnight Delivery Since then all has been quiet on her front until the past few hours ago when reports emerged of a secret meeting she had with the presumptive nominee. CNN and others are reporting that “Flight records show a charter plane left Lansing’s Capital Region International Airport at 5:33 p.m. Sunday for Delaware Coastal Airport and returned at 11:16 p.m. that same night.”

http://banburyaerials.com/hear-more-of-what-you-love-with-amazon-music-unlimited/?unapproved=550 Delaware, of course, is the home and base of Biden and very few of the names being considered for the job have had a face to meetings with the man himself.

follow Just to say that reports of secret charter flights like this are very much a feature of the VP pick process. Those who remember WH2008 will recall the secret flights from Alaska for Sarah Palin to meet John McCain and sharp eyed observers keep a careful eye on the records of charter planes.

click here go site What is clear is that a VP race thought to be confined to Harris and Rice has another serious contender – someone who has had direct experience dealing with COVID19 which is overwhelmingly the main issue. Whitmer can attack Trump’s record in a way that few others are able to do.

Tramadol Cheap Prices Given how imminent the VP announcement is then Whitmer has got to be seen now as a very serious contender. She’s worth a punt. At 0400 GMT she was an 11% chance on Betfair.

Mike Smithson



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Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

Friday, August 7th, 2020

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Online Drugstore Tramadol The Democratic convention is due to start, in a virtual form because of the pandemic, on August 17th and the big development in the run up to the opening will be Joe Biden’s choice of running mate.

watch This is currently the most active political betting market and overnight Betfair had ex-US UN Ambassador as a 32% chance with California Senator Kamala Harris hovering just below 50%. These are the only two who are getting the media coverage at the moment and it will be a huge surprise if he names someone else.

here Tramadol Purchase Online I just wonder whether Rice, who worked closely with Biden during the eight years of the Obama administration has known all along that the job would be hers if Biden became the nominee. Back in the spring of 2019 all the speculation was that Rice would run for the Senate and was working hard to get the nomination in Maine. She then pulled out of that race just as it became clear that Biden would go for the White House and the polls had him well a ahead.

follow That’s just my guess but the timing fits and Rice would be uniquely qualified.

click here Her biggest negative is what she did after the controversial Benghazi when a number of US soldiers were killed. Fox News and co are already to go on the attack on this point if she does get the job and Rice is reported to be ready to take this head on.

I was all in the green on this market. Now I’ve put more on Rice using my likely gains in the main nominee market.

Mike Smithson



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Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

Wednesday, August 5th, 2020

On Betfair its Harris 52%, Rice 24% and 7% the field

With the Democratic convention due to take place the week after next year its getting very close to the point where Joe Biden announces who will join him on the ticket in the presidential election on November 3rd. As far as punters are concerned this is now a straight choice between the the Californian senator, Kamala Harris and the former Obama aide who worked closely with Biden in the White House, Susan Rice. For the eight years of the Obama administration she worked as national Security advisor and then as the US ambassador to the United Nations.

It is said that their offices in the building were next to each other and both would spend a lot of time working through the problems of that government.

The big question is whether Biden will take the plunge and continue with her in the key VP role as we get closer to the election.

Whoever he chooses this is a gamble and something that could change the narrative which no doubt the Republicans are working very hard preparing for.

Rice has never run for elected office and Harris is clearly much better prepared on that side of the business. Rice’s strong point is that she could be an infallible number 2 if he should actually win the election. Rice knows her way round in a way none of the other PP contenders can claim to do

Mike Smithson



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With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers

Tuesday, August 4th, 2020

Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job

As the the Daily Beast reports:

..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the world,’ without elaborating. When Swan looks at the chart, it becomes clear Trump is only considering death as a proportion of coronavirus cases—not as a proportion of population, which shows the U.S. is faring very badly

There’s little doubt that the pandemic will continue to dominate the campaign up to election day on November 3rd and inevitably the media focus’s on things like the exchange above. The incumbent’s approach does not inspire confidence.

Mike Smithson



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Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%.

I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value might be in backing Trump, he may also be relying on electoral chicanery.

http://novimet.com/Bsgfru.php TSE



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Some Trump (sore) loser bets

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election.

I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election.

The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office is clearly defined as Tramadol Cheap Online ‘Refuse defined as being publicly announced by Trump and not attending the inauguration in Jan 2021.’ I think I’ll stick to laying Trump over on Betfair, at slightly lower odds of just under 2/1.

If you’re tempted to back the 10/1 on Trump pulling out of the 2020 campaign I think you’re better off backing Mike Pence over on Betfair to be the winner of the 2020 election or the GOP nominee at 220/1 and 30/1 respectively.

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