Archive for the 'Betting Call' Category


Corbyn’s impending victory affects the Mayoral betting

Tuesday, August 18th, 2015

Take on the mystery Betfair punter

Buy Cheap Tramadol Mike ran a thread the other day looking for markets that might be affected by Jeremy Corbyn’s likely victory in the Labour leadership stakes. He highlighted NO in the EU betting where I’d agree odds of nearly 4/1 are tempting.

see url However to my mind there are even better bets available in the London Mayoral voting – which will still be value even if Corbyn falls just short. Labour’s candidate is being decided on the same ballot paper as the leadership and it doesn’t take a great leap of logic to think that all the new sign-ups are not going to break for Jowell.

click Tessa is seen as a Blairite which won’t go down well with the rejoining old left, and Sadiq has the backing of the major unions – notably Unite. Even more pertinently, reports are coming back from the campaign that this basic “Corbyn = Khan” logic is being seen in practice:

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see Regular PB’ers may well already be on Sadiq Khan at 33/1, thanks to Henry G Manson, and Zac Goldsmith at 22/1, thanks to yours truly.

Order Tramadol Paypal However the logic of the Corbyn surge is surely to extend both of these positions: Khan now looks the clear favourite for the Labour nomination. Goldsmith also seems like a bet as he is more heavily favoured against Khan than Jowell, at least according to YouGov: YouGov-London-Mayor

Tramadol Online There’s also the argument that Zac Goldsmith will be even more likely to be elected if Corbyn wins.  I’m not certain about this as it will probably depend on the nature of the PLP’s response: if there’s infighting, defections or resignations then that won’t play well. However if the PLP bite their collective tongue Corbyn may get a post-election honeymoon. He is also a London MP, which may help.

Tramadol Online Next Day Delivery Regardless, backing Sadiq and – perhaps to a lesser extent – Zac looks like the play here. And someone is making that very easy for us… Betfair-London-Mayor-17-Aug

Cheap Tramadol Online That’s over two grand looking to back Tessa at 3.15 (just shorter than 11/5), despite several bookies being 9/4 and one 5/2, and likewise nearly £2k looking to lay Zac at 3.25 (9/4) whereas the top bookie is just 2/1. This money has been there for a long time without moving in the slightest. (It was originally more like £2.5k on each – I have been nibbling away at it, as no doubt have others). There is also no money “behind” either of these bets – in fact they are both a long way away from the next offer. Bluntly, this is odd behaviour for a serious punter (I’m assuming the same individual is responsible for both bets).

click here Either they are extraordinarily well informed about potential developments in the race (e.g. scandals), or they are simply looking to influence the prices and thus the framing of the race i.e. making Jowell favourite. I’m willing to go with the latter explanation.

Order Tramadol Next Day Delivery I am not suggesting this is necessarily linked to the Jowell campaign; however I am suggesting that you take advantage of this mystery punter’s generosity.

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The Tories become the favourites in the Rochester by-election

Thursday, October 2nd, 2014


In spite of any publicly available polling, punters’ money is backing the Tories.

Tramadol Cheapest Price With Paddy Power, William Hill the Tories are the favourites now, whilst at Betfair and Ladbrokes it is neck and neck between UKIP and the Tories, The Tories were 3/1 on Sunday when these markets opened.

source My thoughts on why this is are as follows

  1. Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood
  2. The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end.
  3. The Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech is expected to see the Tory vote rise in the polls.
  4. I expect we will see the “Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed” meme tested to destruction here (to see if it works) But as Mike Smithson noted the other day “My understanding is that UKIP polling in Rochester & Strood before defection had double figure lead with Reckless as candidate.” So backing UKIP might well be the value here now in the absence of any publicly available polling.

go here The best price you can get on UKIP right now is 11/10.


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UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days

Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Today reports emerged that

Tramadol 50 Mg Buy Uk Senior UKIP figures are claiming two more Tory MPs are ‘in the bag’ and will be unveiled as defectors within days.

Tramadol American Express To the alarm of Conservative HQ, Ukip party secretary Matthew Richardson has boasted privately that two turncoats have agreed to switch parties, according to two separate sources. Mr Richardson has told colleagues an announcement could be made as early as Ukip’s conference, which opens today in Doncaster.

I have a personal rule, that defections are usually surprises, and the ones that are announced/expected in advance generally don’t happen, usually when they happen it is unexpected, just like when Douglas Carswell defected.

In my opinion, the honourable and principled precedent that Douglas Carswell has set, by triggering a by-election to obtain a new mandate from the electorate, something that other defectors might not wish to replicate, particularly if they have a small majority.

However, if UKIP wanted to really damage the Tories and David Cameron in particular, what better way that announce defections just prior to the Tory conference, or even during the conference, so I do think something a defection is likely.

The bookies have a few markets up on this, How Many Conservative MPs Will Defect To UKIP Before General Election and Next Tory MP To Defect To UKIP

I’ve had a nibble on two or more MPs to defect and Philip Hollobone to defect, at 2/1 and 7/1 respectively.




Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

What if the referendum outcome triggered Cameron’s departure?

A few months ago, there was speculation that if Scotland votes Yes, then David Cameron would resign as Prime Minister, that speculation has amped up in recent days.

The Sunday Times reported “several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand David Cameron quit and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there was a “yes” vote.”

Whilst I still have my doubts that David Cameron would resign, for a variety of reasons, but this morning’s Telegraph chimed in, and that it may not be his decision whether he continues.

David Cameron is “in a right hole” and in “serious trouble” with his party for risking the future of the Union by agreeing to a referendum on Scottish independence, senior Tory MPs are saying.

The news came as it emerged that some MPs are canvassing support for Mr Cameron within the party to see whether they would call for the Prime Minister’s resignation in the wake of a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum on September 18….

…. source link Mr Cameron may face an immediate vote of no confidence and a leadership challenge in the event of a Yes vote. 

This morning’s YouGov shows an increasing number of voters are saying Cameron should resign in the event of Scotland voting Yes.

So who would succeed Dave in this scenario? I’ve ruled out Boris, because he’s not an MP, William Hague as he soon won’t be an MP and George Osborne, because if Cameron goes, the whole Osborne/Cameron brand is damaged.

You could argue, that in past Tory leadership elections, the winner won, because they weren’t their opponent, in 1990 John Major won because he wasn’t Michael Heseltine, in 1997 and 2001 William Hague and IDS won because they weren’t Kenneth Clarke.

Something similar could happen, this time around, there are significant Tories (MPs and members) who have not, and will not forgive Theresa May for her nasty party speech, which will boost her opponents, so not being Theresa May could be an advantage.

I have previously backed Theresa May at longer odds than the 16/1 is available now.

Philip Hammond is the man to back, given the rise of UKIP, Tories will conclude the best man to appeal to the Kippers is Hammond, a few weeks ago he reaffirmed that he would vote to leave the EU, it could also enhance the chances of an electoral pact between the Tories and UKIP, which could have major ramifications for the next election on top of Scotland seceding.

The complicating factor is the length of Tory leadership elections, it can take up to three months from start to finish, to put it bluntly, the Tories can’t afford to conduct a drawn out leadership contest, especially this close to an election, and if the forecast economic problems of Scotland seceding take place.

So this will increase the chances of the next Tory leader receiving a coronation like Michael Howard did in 2003, again this would favour Philip Hammond over Theresa May for the reasons above, Michael Howard became Tory leader within a fortnight of a vote of no confidence being triggered in IDS.

I’ve also had a punt on Sajid Javid at 50/1, someone who also the Telegraph are tipping as a replacement for David Cameron. Not only has he impressed as a minister, I think the optics of him being Leader will persuade enough Tories to back him. The Tories, rightly or wrongly, are perceived as being posh, out of touch. What better way to get negate that perception by electing as leader, a working class boy from an ethnic minority.

The son of an immigrant bus driver would take on the Oxbridge educated Clegg and Miliband at the next election, as with John Major, the Tories aren’t afraid to play the class card when it suits them.

The prices on next Prime Minister are available here.

If you think Cameron will resign as Prime Minister this year, but aren’t sure who his replacement will be, you may wish to take the 8/1 to leave the post of the PM in 2014 (it was 16/1 as late as last night)



Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Benedict Brogan wrote the other day

Purchase Tramadol Cod David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office.

That much is understood in Downing Street, where a gnawing doubt about the referendum gets worse by the day. The vote takes place in five months this Friday. Angst rather than panic describes the feeling apparent among those involved – but is it just a momentary loss of nerve, or a dawning realisation that something is seriously wrong?

That’s a pretty sensational revelation. I have my doubts, but iff Brogan is right, then it maybe worth reviewing the next Prime Minister market. If Cameron does resign in the wake of a Yes vote, then I think the next Tory leader (and ergo next Prime Minister) will come from the following four. William Hague – I’ve always viewed him as the if Dave ever fell under a bus candidate. Will he want it? I suspect he may not, but in the scenario of Scotland seceding from the Union, he may.

go Theresa May – Who has been quietly impressive at the Home Office, which had turned into a political graveyard for others, as a result, the bookies make it between her and Boris as favourites for the next Tory leader. (As an aside, given the scenario outlined above, I can’t see Boris being able to run in this leadership election) George Osborne – Two years ago following the omnishambles budget, I would have thought Larry the Cat had a better chance at being next Tory Leader than George. But times change, his personal ratings and the economy have improved, as well at the Tory polling in the aftermath of the budget, it is not as outlandish as it seemed a few years ago.

Buy Cheap Tramadol Online Uk Philip Hammond – If UKIP maintains or improves on its current polling, then some Tories will conclude their best chance of getting back those Con to UKIP switchers, is to back one of the two Tory cabinet ministers who would vote to leave the EU. (The other Michael Gove, I suspect will be on team Osborne.) Hammond like Theresa May has impressed quietly. That said, he was accused of undermining the No campaign earlier on this week.

Looking at the odds on the next Prime Minster, I’ve backed the above four, they are in some way, proxies for a Yes vote, and at odds of 16/1 and higher, they in my opinion represent better value than the 11/4 you can get on Yes winning in September if Brogan is right.

Odds on the next Prime Minister (as at midnight) TSE UPDATE


My 25/1 tip for our next EU Commissioner

Sunday, February 16th, 2014

The primary reason I’ve been reluctant to heavily back Andrews Mitchell and Lansley (or any other Tory MP) is that I think David Cameron wants to avoid having an unnecessary by-election. My own hunch is that UKIP’s best chance of winning a by-election in this parliament will be in a Conservative held seat, and that may influence David Cameron’s choice when deciding our next man in Bruxelles.

So he may go for some who isn’t currently a Member of Parliament, the original Ladbrokes market had a few non MPs, but there was no one who ticked all the boxes. The next Commissioner needs to be a heavyweight, experienced, with unimpeachable Euro-Sceptic credentials.

Michael Howard fitted the criteria, from his previous roles on the Conservative front bench, which culminated in his coronation as Conservative leader in 2003. he additionally has very warm relations with David Cameron, whom he anointed as his successor as Conservative Party Leader.

Last month it was said he spoke for Mr Cameron when he said: “We are now 15 months away from a general election, and as we know from past history, elections don’t favour parties that are divided.” He added: “What is needed is a degree of self-discipline from Conservative backbenchers.”

I asked Ladbrokes to price up Lord Howard for me in this market, and offered what I consider generous odds of 25/1

When I mentioned Lord Howard on a thread earlier on this week, long standing PBer, EdmundInToyko, said this was a good suggestion, but that his age might be an issue, he will be 73, this summer. But I don’t see that being an issue, he’s only a year or two older than the current Business Secretary and the US Vice-President, and if she’s elected in 2016, Hillary Clinton will be 73 at the end of her first term as President.

The Ladbrokes market is available here.

If you have your own sensible suggestions, tweet @LadPolitics, and they may price up your suggestion, like they did for me with Lord Howard.



Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

Friday, August 23rd, 2013


A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds.

Now in 2010, the Liberal Democrats didn’t lose any deposits, whilst the the Conservatives lost just two deposits and Labour lost five deposits.

At the General Election in 2015 I’m fully expecting the Lib Dem resources to be concentrated on around 75-80 seats, the 57 they currently hold, and the 20-25 target seats or so they could gain if the Tories have a relatively poor night.

The remaining 570 seats won’t have much Lib Dem money or resources thrown at them.

Paddy Power have put a market up on the number of Lib Dem lost deposits at the 2015 General Election.

Of the fourteen Great British by-elections held since the 2010 General Election, the Lib Dems have lost their deposit in seven of them.

On that basis, I’ve had a couple nibbles on the over 126 plus ranges.

UPDATE – Thanks to AndyJS – for posting the link to the Lib Dem Share of the vote in 2010 by consituency





Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

Thursday, March 7th, 2013

With polls as they are this looks an easy task

This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team.

If this is all they won and the Tories didn’t pick up any from other parties then they would have 284 MPs to CON’s 283. One of them, Corby, they netted in last November’s by election.

Mike Smithson

Tramadol Tablets Online For the latest polling and political betting news