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Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

The Spread Betting firm SportingIndex has now got up its WH2020 markets and the early prices have Biden on 281 ECVs which is 11 above the number required. This is a form of betting that lends itself well to elections because if you “BUY BIDEN” at the stated level the more ECVs he secures the more money that you will make. Alas it works the other way if you get it wrong. The more you are wrong the more you…

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TV ratings: Biden’s convention speech got a bigger audience than Trump’s

TV ratings: Biden’s convention speech got a bigger audience than Trump’s

Given that elections at this stage are all about metrics of one form or another we now have the TV audience figures for Trump’s speech overnight which we can compare with Biden’s and the numbers give the Democrat the edge. This is how CNN is reporting it: President Trump’s Thursday night convention speech making the case for his reelection was lower-rated than his challenger Joe Biden’s speech one week ago, according to overnight Nielsen ratings. About 21.6 million viewers watched…

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Kamala Harris looks set have a bigger role in this White House campaign than previous VP picks

Kamala Harris looks set have a bigger role in this White House campaign than previous VP picks

She’s the Democrat making big set piece attacks on Trump’s big night One of the undoubted weaknesses of the Democrats as we go into the next phase of the White House Race is the age of Joe Biden and that he can often appear to be old. If he won he’d be 78 on Inauguration Day. His apparent frailty has already become a major attack line for the Republicans who don’t just want to retain the White House in November…

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Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Could they soon be level? Even though the polls continue to have Biden with a significant lead over Trump punters remain increasingly convinced that this is a much tighter race than the data might appear. The latest prices on the Betfair Exchange have Trump moving up to a 45.5% chance and there is still some way to go before the GOP convention closes late on Thursday night US time. Again the thinking of the Trump backers is dominated by their…

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Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

Above is the latest RCP table showing the most recent Trump approval ratings. In the US more attention is paid to these in Presidential contests than to voting polls and the trend above for the incumbent is not good. With the exception is the Republican-friendly pollster, Rasmussen, all the other surveys have dire numbers for Trump and there is no precedent for an incumbent with such disapproval levels getting re-elected. Of course most Americans are only just now starting to…

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First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

First post convention polling has Biden retaining his clear lead but no signs of a bounce

Generally speaking in previous White House races the big party conventions have been the trigger for significant moves in the polling. This year because of the pandemic the conventions are virtual and all eyes are on the the first full surveys to come out following the Democratic party event which finished on Thursday night. So far there is only one new poll carried out totally after the convention and that has Biden with a 9% lead rather than an 8%…

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The Biden-Trump betting narrows as the Democratic convention, now virtual, opens

The Biden-Trump betting narrows as the Democratic convention, now virtual, opens

This is certain to be the biggest political betting event of all time Today was due to be the start of the huge gathering in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, of Democrats for their convention to formally decide on the nomination and then to launch the campaign which finishes on November 3rd. These generally get wall to wall coverage on the networks and are a great platform to move forward. Unfortunately this year we have coronavirus which is still at…

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On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris

On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has good news for the Democrats on the eve of their virtual convention and after a week which has seen Kamala Harris become Biden’s VP pick. The data shows that more Americans approve than disapprove of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%. Amongst Republican voters the split is is 25-55% – so quite a high proportion backing the Senator from California. The split amongst Democrats is 86-8%. Another positive figure…

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