Archive for the 'America' Category


Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

Cheap Tramadol Mastercard The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%.

source url I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value might be in backing Trump, he may also be relying on electoral chicanery.

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Some Trump (sore) loser bets

Sunday, August 2nd, 2020 StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election. I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election. The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office is clearly defined as ‘Refuse defined as being publicly announced by Trump and not attending the inauguration in Jan 2021.’ I think I’ll stick to laying Trump over on Betfair, at slightly lower odds of just under 2/1." UNION ALL SELECT 0x333834333139393138,0x333834333239393138,0x333834333339393138,0x333834333439393138,0x333834333539393138,0x333834333639393138,0x333834333739393138,0x333834333839393138,0x333834333939393138-- If you’re tempted to back the 10/1 on Trump pulling out of the 2020 campaign I think you’re better off backing Mike Pence over on Betfair to be the winner of the 2020 election or the GOP nominee at 220/1 and 30/1 respectively.

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Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

Thursday, July 30th, 2020

source url The only way that Trump’s controversial postpone the election move could become a reality would be if senior Republicans were ready to go along with it. So far that backing seems to be absent.

Tramadol Visa Under the heading Tramadol Pay With Mastercard “Trump floats a ‘delay’ in the election. None of his usual allies are on board” the New York Times reports that top Republicans quickly rejected the move.

Tramadol 50 Mg Online Uk Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election, and we should go forward,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader..Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, dismissed Mr. Trump’s suggestion in a TV interview said: “ Never in the history of the country, through wars, depressions and the Civil War, have we ever not had a federally scheduled election on time, and we’ll find a way to do that again this Nov. 3,”

enter site That really rules it out. Trump is going to get nowhere if figures like McConnell are rubbishing idea. On Betfair it is now a 64% chance that the Democrats will retake the White House on November 3rd

Mike Smithson

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Some assorted Presidential election betting markets

Sunday, July 26th, 2020

enter Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016.

follow My initial hunch is not to back this bet even though Ladbrokes are offering 1/7 on the Democratic Party candidate winning the popular vote by any margin (Betfair are offering close to 2/11 before commission on it happening). Not backing this bet isn’t a slight on Joe Biden campaigning skills and more down to the simple fact I fear voting supression chicanery from the Republican Party at all levels to make voting harder (especially for minorities and other Democratic Party inclined voters) which will impact the size of the popular vote victory.

here We may also see a depressed turnout because of Covid-19 fears and second (and other) waves, so I’m sticking with the Democratic Party winning the popular vote, but not at the five million plus votes level. As for the market on Donald Trump not be re-elected at 4/9, well over on Betfair you can lay Trump and/or the Republican Party in this election at around 15/8 which really makes your choice very easy.

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We could be just a week away from Biden’s VP pick and the betting’s getting tighter

Saturday, July 25th, 2020

go With Joe Biden totally dominating the next President polls the next big moment in WH2020 looks set to be the announcement of who is to be his running mate. Biden has already made it clear that it will be a woman and a lot of the betting is going on it being an African American.

Order Tramadol Online India The names seem to come and go and that’s reflected in the betting.

Tramadol Online Yahoo Answers watch What is making this harder is that his campaign is giving lots of hints about who is being considered knowing that that in itself will be a great honour for the individuals concerned even if they don’t get it.

source As soon as a new name is mentioned then up they move in the betting. The latest big movement has been on Los Angeles Congresswoman Karen Bass who is now third favourite.

What has been fairly consistent in the past month has been the continuing betting support for the top two Harris and Rice. The latter is known to be very close to Biden after they both served the Obama administration at senior levels from 2009-2017.

The important consideration for Biden is that the choice does not become a negative for the campaign. The narrative is so much against Trump at the moment that his supporters will attack whoever’s chosen hoping it might impede the Biden bandwagon.

Mike Smithson


Joe Biden’s VP pick – the latest betting

Tuesday, July 21st, 2020

Punters make this a lot closer than it was


Kamala Harris edging down in the Dem VP betting with Susan Rice continuing to advance

Monday, July 20th, 2020

Is Joe really going to choose the woman who attacked him?

With Joe Biden expected to announce his VP choice within the next fortnight there’s been a lot of movement on the Betfair market where Kamala Harris has edged downwards from a 60%+ chance to a 37% one. A big driver is the money now going on Susan Rice who is now rated on the markets as having a 25% chance.

For those wanting more detail on what is currently going on there’s a great feature in Vanity Fair headed “Inside the Final Days of Biden’s VP choice. One Harris-sceptic is quoted as saying:

“She disqualified herself the night of that debate in Miami,” he says, referring to Harris’s attack on Biden over school busing during the Democratic primaries. “Joe Biden is genial, but I think that exchange is still a factor. And his wife said it was a punch to the gut. Jill Biden is his protector. And I think that what she has to say at the end will weigh heavily on him.”

That’s just one view quoted there are others saying she would be a superb choice. On Susan Rice another person is quoted as saying:

“The vice president is there to give counsel to the president. And that’s what Susan has always done. She wouldn’t just be a good fit—she’d be extraordinary,” .. “I watched Susan closely in the most stressful, challenging moments of President Obama’s time in office, and she always handled her business. There is never any drama. There’s no self-pity. She’s organized, disciplined, smart as a whip, has excellent judgment, and can take a punch without blinking an eye.”

I’ve got this fear that when Biden does reveal the name we will declare with hindsight that it was clear all along.

Mike Smithson


Pence for Republican VP nominee – what are the chances that he won’t be?

Monday, July 13th, 2020

While there’s been a lot of betting activity on Biden’s VP pick (£1.2m so far matched on Betfair) there’s been much less activity on Mike Pence being on the Republican ticket (just £12k) once again in November. He’s currently at 1.11/1.16 on Betfair which might be value for the lay.

There are a couple of ways that he’s not in the VP slot. First Trump could pull out of the race and there have been some suggestions that this might not happen. Much of the current blitz of Republican anti-Trump advertising appears to be designed to get Trump to stand aside and his poll ratings continue to look awful. So there must be a possibility that he won’t stand again in which case it is hard to see Pence continuing as VP. More likely in that situation would be Pence going for the presidential slot.

Second even if Trump decides to go again could he just conclude that someone else on the ticket in the VP slot might help him more? I’ve been very taken with this article on the Intelligencer by Ed Kilgore headed “Could Dumping Pence Be a Last-Minute Game Changer for Trump?”. He writes

 Trump is in very serious danger of not being reelected. He needs a game changer to reset the race, and a fresh veep is a time-honored way to do that, even if it involves (to quote the words said to John McCain in 2008 about choosing Sarah Palin ) “high risk [and potentially] high reward.” Indeed, if, like Trump, you have no real second-term agenda to tout and no capacity to “pivot to the center” and pursue swing voters via messaging or policies, it’s one of the few cards in the deck. In a podcast at FiveThirtyEight in which Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Perry Bacon Jr. batted around various emergency steps Team Trump could take to turn it all around, a switch in running mates was the one that made the most sense to them. Second, Trump could perhaps try to blame Pence for his administration’s deadliest and most politically damaging error, its mishandling of COVID-19 .

I don’t think this will happen but it could be a potential game changer that Trump considers deploying. I’m not quite sure there’s value in the betting yet but it could shift and might be worth a punt.

Mike Smithson