This is the closest for LAB in any poll since GE2019
In the first poll by Opinium after Starmer became LAB leader the Tories were on 55% and LAB on 29%. Tonight’s weekly poll from the firm for the Observer has CON 41: LAB 38: LD 6%.
That is a remarkable change in less than four months and will be seen as a real vindication of Starmer’s approach to the job since he became leader on April 4th.
Of course in April it was in the early days of lockdown and there was a general public mood to back the government. That has faded sharply and tonight’s figures in a general election would almost certainly lead to a hung parliament.
Of course as well there isn’t an imminent general election and anything can happen between now and May 2024 which is the latest it can be held.
Opinium was the most accurate pollster at GE2019 and is the only firm to do regular approval ratings. This post will be updated when the leader ratings are published.