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Month: July 2020

Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Regular PBers will know that at this stage before a general election I take much more notice of leadership ratings than voting intention polls. With the former those sampled are asked for simply an opinion whereas with voting questions they are asked to predict what they might or might not do in 3/4 years time when they could not even turn out. When tested in real elections such as 1992 and 2015 the leader ratings have got the outcome right…

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WH2020: We need a market on who will President on January 21st – the day after inauguration

WH2020: We need a market on who will President on January 21st – the day after inauguration

Could Trump get away with sitting tight and refusing to budge? Following his Tweet yesterday suggesting that the Presidential election on November 3rd should be postponed there has been a huge amount of speculation about what Trump will do if if he doesn’t win re-election which based on current polling looks very unlikely. This is from Susan Glasser in the New Yorker: So, sorry, we cannot just ignore it when the President threatens to cancel an election. This is the…

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The Pandemic: Millions of people in the north affected by new lockdown restrictions announced by Tweet

The Pandemic: Millions of people in the north affected by new lockdown restrictions announced by Tweet

Starmer calls the manner of the announcement a “new low” An estimated 4m people living in large parts of the North wake up this morning to find that a new range of lockdown restrictions has been implemented. The areas covered include Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of Yorkshire. The measures make it illegal in the areas covered for people from different households to meet indoors and have been brought in because of a rising number of COVID cases there. The…

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Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

The only way that Trump’s controversial postpone the election move could become a reality would be if senior Republicans were ready to go along with it. So far that backing seems to be absent. Under the heading “Trump floats a ‘delay’ in the election. None of his usual allies are on board” the New York Times reports that top Republicans quickly rejected the move. Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election, and we…

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His Highness, King Donald the First, the Great Usurping Caesar, violator of the constitution is now talking about delaying the election

His Highness, King Donald the First, the Great Usurping Caesar, violator of the constitution is now talking about delaying the election

Donald Trump’s tweet is quite interesting for those of us betting on this year’s Presidential election. Quite frankly it would require an act of Congress to change the date of this November’s election from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. It would require all 50 states to go along with this, which I cannot see happening. If there’s no election Trump’s mandate expires next January and Nancy Pelosi would take over. I suspect this might be more…

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65 years of Tory Prime Ministers – their educational backgrounds

65 years of Tory Prime Ministers – their educational backgrounds

And EVERY LAB winner of a general election majority winner went to Oxford One of my little obsessions over the years has been the very narrow base from which political leaders come from in the UK. The table above shows the educational backgrounds of every Tory PM since Churchill stood aside in 1955 and as can be seen all but one of them went to Oxford – the exception being John Major who did not go to university. Labour doesn’t…

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The Biden note that’s made Harris odds on favourite once again for the VP pick

The Biden note that’s made Harris odds on favourite once again for the VP pick

On Betfair she’s moved from a 35% chance to a 57% one On Betfair the betting on who Joe Biden will choose as his VP has been totally shaken up overnight following a photographer snapping a note seen in his hands in which Harris, the longtime favourite, is at the top and rated highly. The development followed last night’s news that the presumptive Democratic party nominee will announce who will be on the ticket with him during the first week…

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