Archive for July, 2020


Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Friday, July 31st, 2020

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follow site Regular PBers will know that at this stage before a general election I take much more notice of leadership ratings than voting intention polls. With the former those sampled are asked for simply an opinion whereas with voting questions they are asked to predict what they might or might not do in 3/4 years time when they could not even turn out. When tested in real elections such as 1992 and 2015 the leader ratings have got the outcome right while the voting polls have been wrong.

follow This evening sees the first Scottish favourability ratings from YouGov since Keir Starmer was elected Labour leader in April. That he should be, even by a single point, be in net favourable territory is probably a good sign because if Labour is to recover at all then it has to make progress in winning back some of the Scottish seats that it has lost since 2010. Then it had 41 Scottish Labour MPs – that figure is now down to one.

go http___www.bigleaguekickball.com_about_ Order Soma online overnight FedEx delivery Scotland has also played a big part in Conservative fortunes taking 13 seats at 2017 general election out of the 59 total north of the border – a figure that dropped to just six at GE2019 under Johnson.

source url So the fact that the national Conservative leader has a net rating here minus 51 should be a matter of real concern and suggests that he might be in some trouble in trying to hold the 6 next time.

Mike Smithson

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WH2020: We need a market on who will President on January 21st – the day after inauguration

Friday, July 31st, 2020

Could Trump get away with sitting tight and refusing to budge?

Buy Cheap Tramadol Online Uk Following his Tweet yesterday suggesting that the Presidential election on November 3rd should be postponed there has been a huge amount of speculation about what Trump will do if if he doesn’t win re-election which based on current polling looks very unlikely.

Order Tramadol Overnight Mastercard This is from Susan Glasser in the New Yorker:

Tramadol Buy Europe go here So, sorry, we cannot just ignore it when the President threatens to cancel an election. This is the kind of statement that should haunt your dreams. It is wannabe-dictator talk. It is dangerous even if it is not attached to any actions. And those who think that some actions will not follow have not been paying attention. My alarm stems from having covered Russia when Putin was dismantling the fragile, flawed democratic institutions that the country had established after the fall of the Soviet Union. It stems from reading history. It stems from having watched the past four years in America, where, day by day, the unthinkable has happened and been justified, rationalized, and explained away.

Tramadol Mexico Buy There are real concerns that Trump will refuse to accept the result and sit tight. What he does have which could put them in a very powerful position is controlling the levers of power right up to 9 am on January 20th which is the inauguration day. Until that moment he remains Commander-in-Chief.

see url We are already seeing some of the lengths that he is going to at the moment sending federal troops to various cities to underpin his position. The questions are would he dare to force himself on the nation for another 4-year term and what can be done to stop him?

get link What is interesting is how his moves are creating new political movements the most striking one of which is the Wall of Moms which was set up in Portland as a line of defence against rampaging federal forces.

Online Tramadol Cod An interesting bet in this context would who will be president on January 21st the day after the inauguration. So far I’ve not seen this put up by any bookie but my guess is that the odds on that happening would be better than those on Trump winning the election itself and that is very scary.

Mike Smithson

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The Pandemic: Millions of people in the north affected by new lockdown restrictions announced by Tweet

Friday, July 31st, 2020

Starmer calls the manner of the announcement a “new low”

Order Tramadol Overnight Cod An estimated 4m people living in large parts of the North wake up this morning to find that a new range of lockdown restrictions has been implemented. The areas covered include Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of Yorkshire.

Tramadol Canada Online The measures make it illegal in the areas covered for people from different households to meet indoors and have been brought in because of a rising number of COVID cases there. The manner of the announcement, by late night Tweet, has drawn the wrath of LAB leader Keir Starmer. He Tweeted:

see url No one would argue with putting in place local action to reduce the transmission of coronavirus. But announcing measures affecting potentially millions of people late at night on Twitter is a new low for the government’s communications during this crisis. When the government ended the daily press conferences, they said they would hold them for “significant announcements”, including local lockdowns. It’s hard to imagine what could be more significant than this. For all the bluster, government has failed to deliver a functioning track and trace system that would spot local flare ups like these. The people of Greater Manchester now need urgent clarity and explanation from the government – and there must be proper support for those businesses and people affected by any lockdown.

go site The areas covered by this latest development include many of the seats gained by the Tories last December in the general election and which Labour dearly wants to win back.

see url HealthSec Matt Hancock said “We take this action with a heavy heart but unfortunately it’s necessary because we’ve seen that households meeting up and a lack of social distancing is one of the causes of this rising rate of coronavirus and we’ll do whatever is necessary to keep the country safe.”

Mike Smithson

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Senior Republicans not enthused by Trump’s postpone the election move

Thursday, July 30th, 2020 The only way that Trump’s controversial postpone the election move could become a reality would be if senior Republicans were ready to go along with it. So far that backing seems to be absent.

Order Tramadol Cod Next Day Delivery Under the heading Tramadol Rx Purchase “Trump floats a ‘delay’ in the election. None of his usual allies are on board” the New York Times reports that top Republicans quickly rejected the move.

here Never in the history of the federal elections have we not held an election, and we should go forward,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader..Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, dismissed Mr. Trump’s suggestion in a TV interview said: “ source url Never in the history of the country, through wars, depressions and the Civil War, have we ever not had a federally scheduled election on time, and we’ll find a way to do that again this Nov. 3,” That really rules it out. Trump is going to get nowhere if figures like McConnell are rubbishing idea.

go here On Betfair it is now a 64% chance that the Democrats will retake the White House on November 3rd

Mike Smithson

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His Highness, King Donald the First, the Great Usurping Caesar, violator of the constitution is now talking about delaying the election

Thursday, July 30th, 2020

Donald Trump’s tweet is quite interesting for those of us betting on this year’s Presidential election. Quite frankly it would require an act of Congress to change the date of this November’s election from the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. It would require all 50 states to go along with this, which I cannot see happening.

If there’s no election Trump’s mandate expires next January and Nancy Pelosi would take over. I suspect this might be more of a ploy do discredit the result of November’s result, absent a Biden landslide, to allow Trump to try and ignore the result, but as above, Nancy Pelosi would take over the Presidency on January 20th.

So if I had to bet, I’d bet on November’s election to take place on time.

Of course today’s tweet might be a giant dead cat, so large you can see it from the moon. TSE


65 years of Tory Prime Ministers – their educational backgrounds

Thursday, July 30th, 2020

And EVERY LAB winner of a general election majority winner went to Oxford

One of my little obsessions over the years has been the very narrow base from which political leaders come from in the UK. The table above shows the educational backgrounds of every Tory PM since Churchill stood aside in 1955 and as can be seen all but one of them went to Oxford – the exception being John Major who did not go to university.

Labour doesn’t do any better. Only three leaders have ever led their party to general election majorities and all of them went to Oxford. There was Attlee at GE1945 and GE1950, Wilson GE1964, GE1966, GE1974 Oct and of course Tony Blair at GE1997, GE2001 and GE2005.

Keir Starmer went to Leeds University but did a post-grad degree at Oxford.

Non-Grad James Callaghan lost to the Tories at GE1979. Gordon Brown who was LAB leader from 2007-2010 did not go to Oxford but never won a general election.

The extraordinary thing is that the last CON PM who didn’t go to Oxford was Baldwin at GE1935. The nearest the light blues have got to Number 10 in recent times was Cambridge grad Michael Howard who lost to Tony Blair at GE2005.

Will this trend continue?

Mike Smithson


The polls suggest that whoever Biden chooses for the VP slot it will make little difference

Wednesday, July 29th, 2020

Mike Smithson


The Biden note that’s made Harris odds on favourite once again for the VP pick

Wednesday, July 29th, 2020

On Betfair she’s moved from a 35% chance to a 57% one

On Betfair the betting on who Joe Biden will choose as his VP has been totally shaken up overnight following a photographer snapping a note seen in his hands in which Harris, the longtime favourite, is at the top and rated highly.

The development followed last night’s news that the presumptive Democratic party nominee will announce who will be on the ticket with him during the first week of August.

Tramadol Visa While I think that Harris is in with a very strong chance and should be the betting favourite I’m not totally convinced of this move. It all looked a bit contrived. I just wonder whether in putting himself in a position where this could be photographed he is trying to get a message to Harris that she is being seriously considered.

This happened after a report on Politico that a leading member of Biden’s VP selection team has been making very critical comments about Harris. Maybe the note is just an attempt to appease the Senator from California

We also do not know whether there are similar notes for others who are regarded as leading contenders.

This is a critical choice for the 77 year old as we move to the (virtual) convention season and the effective start of the campaign. For Team Trump are desperately wanting to move the narrative off their man’s handling of the pandemic and will launch ferocious attacks on whoever Biden chooses.

I rate the chances of Harris getting it at 50% but not more.

Mike Smithson