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The lockdown is being eased from July 4th but the virus has not gone away

June 23rd, 2020

Is this going to change the political trends?

As expected the man who desperately needs a haircut, PM Johnson, has announced a range of measures that will ease the lockdown from a week on Saturday which will be exactly three months to the day since Keir Starmer became opposition leader.

In that time the Tories lead has been slashed from 26% in two polls in April to the blue team being just four or five points ahead. Johnson’s personal ratings have slumped from net positives of 40%+ to minus four or five.

Surely this news is going to make people feel a bit happier and the question for political watchers is what this is going to do to Johnson’s ratings and the voting intention polls. Can we expect a boost?

There is a tendency for the public to get behind their leaders at a time or crisis which might explain some of the exceptionally good blue numbers in April. My guess is that there might be a small uplift but not by very much and it might not last.

We should get the first indication in the next few days.

Mike Smithson