Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context

April 5th, 2020

As Alastair Meeks pointed out this morning Sir Keir Starmer and Labour need a net gain of 124 seats at the next election for a majority so I thought it would be interesting to see how man net gains each Leaders of the Opposition have made at each general election from 1945 onwards.

Only three LOTOs have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it.

My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from the Conservatives at the next election and the Conservatives need to lose around 55-60 net seats at the next election for Labour to take power at the next election as part of a rainbow alliance.

Following Boris Johnson and the Conservatives putting a border down the Irish Sea I suspect no other party will back a minority Conservative Government, even the DUP, especially as Starmer isn’t as affectionate towards the IRA in the way Corbyn appeared to be.

Although I won’t be making any predictions on the outcome of the next election until the Covid-19 crisis is resolved.