h1

The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

February 26th, 2020

The betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows how punters responded to the latest debate. The betting loser was Bernie who was a 53% chance yesterday morning and is now a 43% one.

The big gainer was Biden who had his best debate performance so far in a state, South Carolina, that votes on Saturday and he has made his firewall. Bloomberg was only slightly better than last week but he has edged up in the betting. This was the New York Times verdict:

It was Mr. Sanders, however, who had the roughest night: Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., warned that nominating Mr. Sanders would not only cost Democrats their chance to capture the White House, but also jeopardize their majority in the House and their chance of taking the Senate. Pointing to the congressional Democrats elected in 2018, Mr. Buttigieg told Mr. Sanders, “They are running away from your platform as fast as they possibly can.” Mr. Bloomberg joined in, saying of Mr. Sanders: “Can anybody in this room imagine moderate Republicans going over and voting for him?”

South Carolina votes on Saturday. I laid Sanders on Betfair at 1.96 before the debate and closed down my bet at 2.3 thus getting back into the green.

Mike Smithson