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Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

February 26th, 2020

It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has:

  • Starmer 53%
  • Long-Bailey 31%
  • Nandy 16%

A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th.

Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into account.

This has helped push Starmer to a 91% chance on Betfair.

Mike Smithson