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Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?

February 24th, 2020

The latest betting on Betfair has Trump as a 59% chance of being re-elected in November. This reflects a widespread view that Sanders is going to win the nomination but that when it comes to the election itself he’ll prove to be unelectable.

Maybe that’s why the overall outcome betting has now moved towards Trump and certainly I have my doubts about the Dems choosing a candidate who would be 80 a few months after becoming president if elected.

But let’s remind ourselves what was being said about Trump four years ago. Exactly the same view was being expressed that he would prove unable to win in the November 2016 election. Well that was wrong even though Hillary won on the popular vote. Also casting your mind back the same thing was being said at this stage in 2008 about Barack Obama.

Latest polls have Sanders beating Trump both nationally and in WisconsinMichigan, and Pennsylvania the three key states that the Democrats have to re-take.

Because of his age a key element is who nominee Sanders would choose as his running mate because clearly there would be a higher than normal chance of that person succeeding to the Presidency.

Meanwhile we go forward to the next state to decide, South Carolina where Jo Biden has high hopes. Then a week tomorrow we have “Super Tuesday”.

Mike Smithson