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For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

February 21st, 2020
My Iowa betting position

Tomorrow sees Nevada the second state in the WH2020 process to hold a caucus to choose a nominee to fight Mr. Trump. The big difference between caucuses and a normal primary is that with the former the party machine, not the state government handles the elections which can be more complex than simple statewide ballots.

Democratic Party officials in Nevada are determined that there should be no repetition of the Iowa mess-up where we still don’t know for sure whether 38 year old Pete Buttigieg or Bernie Sanders, who is 40 years his senior, is the winner. The latest official report from the party had Buttigieg ahead by the narrowest of margins on the delegate count but both top candidates demanded a recount.

It is therefore possible that we could get a firm result in the Nevada caucus before Iowa which was nearly a fortnight ago.

Because there has been no resolution and the UK bookies have yet to settle the Iowa market. That’s understandable. Back at WH2012 Romney was declared the on the night winner in the Republican race with a wafer thin margin and Betfair paid out. It was only a week and a half later that we got the official certified result which had Romney trailing behind Santorum and punters like me were not happy.

It is in this context that the bookies are reluctant to pay out and there’s still a lot of betting going on.

When it became clear on the night of Iowa that there was a problem I cashed in my Buttigieg bets and win whatever happens.

Mike Smithson