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Bernie heading for New Hampshire victory with Biden in single figures

February 12th, 2020

At this stage none of the networks has been ready to call the New Hampshire primary but it’s looking as though this is going to go with the final polling. Bernie Sanders winning but with nothing like the margin that he had over Hillary Clinton in the same state 4 years ago.

What’s clear is that 77 year old Sanders has been helped by the rise of Amy Klobuchar who was judged to have had by the the best TV debate performance on Friday night. This has split the moderate vote and perhaps deprived Buttigieg of victory.

The real question marks tonight over Joe Biden who is struggling to end up in the top 4 in a state where he had polling leads not so long ago. He is doing for worse than the 23%+ that the RCP average had him only two weeks ago.

Clearly to my mind his polling position has been artificially bolstered because as the former vice president he has had much higher name recognition. Looking forward we should regard his polling numbers with some scepticism.

Buttigieg will be pleased with his current second place only 4-5 points behind Bernie after being on the receiving end of a torrent of attacks from all sides in the past few days. What is clear is that the centrists are between them getting many more votes than Warren/Sanders combined.

There are no numbers for Mike Bloomberg who is concentrating on super Tuesday on March 3rd.

Mike Smithson