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Whoever ends up winning Iowa the WH2020 Dem nomination battle is now framed as between Bernie and Buttigieg

February 7th, 2020

The big question mark is over Bloomberg

Although the Iowa result has not yet been finalised and it might be a few days before we know, there’s little doubt that what happened on Monday will have a major impact on the race from here. We are already seeing this in polls for the New Hampshire Primary which takes place next Tuesday.

It is a big ask to expect Pete to achieve victory in New Hampshire but some polls have him pretty close and that must be taken into account. For the big thing that happened in Iowa was the collapse in support for the person who for long time had been topping the polls, ex-VP Joe Biden. The worry for the former VP now is that centrist voters might switch to the one who looks most likely able to beat the Socialist Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

Next state in line after New Hampshire are the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina which has a very large non-white population and which Biden always regarded as his fire wall. Maybe. But he could go into that state in a much weakened position. He’s currently about evens on Betfair and I’m tempted to lay him.

The other big question mark that hangs over the primary race is Michael Bloomberg who hasn’t competed in the four early states but is throwing $200m+ of his own money into his campaign. Is that going to change the narrative? I don’t know.

Mike Smithson