h1

Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part 2

January 30th, 2020

With the Irish general election taking place a week on Saturday the pressure is mounting on Leo Varadkar & the Fine Gael members.

Michael Martin looks more certain to become the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) but it’s not over yet. Can Sinn Fein pull off the almighty, unbelievable upset, find out below!
My predictions will be submitted in alphabetical order.

Galway East (Three Seats)

Galway East looks set to be a very interesting constituency and nobody is safe here, The current TD’s are Sean Canney (Independent), Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil) & Ciaran Cannon (Fine Gael). This constituency is mainly rural including areas like Tuam (Galway North), Kinvara, Gort (Galway South) and Loughrea, Portumna (Galway East).

Sean Canney will be feeling the heat, although he’s a very hard community worker, I think he will just lose it this time.

Prediction: Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fail).

Other Runners: Sean Canney (Ind), Ciaran Cannon (Fine Gael), Pete Roche (Fine Gael), Donagh Killilea (Fianna Fail).

Galway West (Five Seats)

Galway West was a constituency where Fianna Fáil got a higher percentage of first preferences than Fine Gael yet achieved only one seat, while Fine Gael got Two. This is definitely going to be one of the most, if not the most exciting come election day (8th February 2020). Although Noel Grealish is somewhat controversial, He looks to be re-elected. Green Party look to do rather well this time around. Sean Kyne (Fine Gael) could be under serious pressure,

Prediction: Eamon O’Cuiv (Fianna Fáil), Noel Grealish (Ind) & Pauline O Reilly (Green Party).

Other Runners: Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael), Sean Kyne (Fine Gael), Niall O’Tuathail (Social Democrats), Catherine Connolly (Ind), Ollie Crowe (Fianna Fail), Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Fein), Mike Cubbard (Ind).

Kerry (Five Seats)

Kerry is home to just over 100,000 citizens and the independents are very popular in this part of Ireland. The Healy-Rae’s (Michael & Danny) are both nailed on to get re-elected. The pair are both Independents. Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) & John Brassil (Fianna Fáil) should do enough to win a seat, although it probably won’t be on the first count.

Prediction: Michael Healy-Rae (Ind), Danny Healy-Rae (Ind), Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) & John Brassil (Fianna Fail).

Other Runners: Norma Foley (Fianna Fail), Pa Daly (Sinn Fein), Mike Kennelly (Fine Gael), Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail).

Kildare North (Four Seats)

This sets to be a terrific constituency with the fourth seat being on a knife edge. Excluding Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats), This constituency is fairly balanced between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. I’m not entirely sure if the Greens will get the fourth seat but I wouldn’t rule out Emmet Stagg (Labour).

Prediction: Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats), James Lawless (Fianna Fail) & Frank O’Rourke (Fianna Fail).

Other Runners: Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael), Anthony Lawlor (Fine Gael), Vincent P.Martin (Green Party), Reada Cronin (Sinn Fein), Emmet Stagg (Labour Party).

Kildare South (Three Seats)

There are only three seats here and Fianna Fáil hold two of them, with Martin Heydon (Fine Gael) holding the other. It won’t be straight forward but I can’t see any or much change here this time around. Mark Wall (Labour) is probably most likely of the rest to challenge for third place.

Prediction: Fiona O’Loughlin (Fianna Fail) & Martin Heydon (Fine Gael).

Other Runners: Mark Wall (Labour), Suzanne Doyle (Fianna Fail), Cathal Berry (Ind), Patricia Ryan (Sinn Fein), Fiona McLoughlin Healy (Independent).

Laois – Offaly (Five Seats)

Prediction: Barry Cowen (Fianna Fail), Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael), Sean Fleming (Fianna Fail) & Brian Stanley (Sinn Fein).

Other Runners: Peter Ormond (Fianna Fail), Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy (Fine Gael), Carol Nolan (Ind), John Leahy (Ind), Pippa Hackett (Green Party), Pauline Flanagan (Fianna Fail).

Limerick City (Four Seats)

Prediction: Willie O’Dea (Fianna Fail) & Maurice Quinlivan (Sinn Fein).

Other Runners: Kieran O’Donnell (Fine Gael), James Collins (Fianna Fail), Frankie Daly (Ind), Jan O Sullivan (Labour Party), Brian Leddin (Green Party), Maria Byrne (Fine Gael).

Limerick County (Three Seats)
Prediction: Niall Collins (Fianna Fail) & Patrick O Donovan (Fine Gael).

Other Runners: Tom Neville (Fine Gael), Michael Collins (Fianna Fail), Richard O’Donoghue (Ind), Claire Keating (Green Party).

Longford – Westmeath (Four Seats)
Prediction: Robert Troy (Fianna Fail), Kevin “Boxer” Moran (Ind) & Peter Burke (Fine Gael).

Other Runners: Joe Flaherty (Fianna Fail), Michael Carrigy (Fine Gael), Alan Mangan (Labour Party), James Reynolds (National Party), Gabrielle McFadden (Fine Gael), Louise Heavin (Green Party).

Louth (Five Seats)

Prediction: Imelda Munster (Sinn Fein) & Declan Breathnach (Fianna Fail).

Other Runners: Ruairi O’Murchu (Sinn Fein), Ged Nash (Labour Party), Fergus O’Dowd (Fine Gael), Peter Fitzpatrick (Ind), John McGahon (Fine Gael), James Byrne (Fianna Fail), Mark Dearey (Green Party).

That’s the end of part two, I will submit part three in the next few days. Thank you.

GreenMachine