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With 49 CLPs now having decided just under two thirds are going to Starmer

January 24th, 2020

Keir Starmer: 32 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 7 Lisa Nandy: 7 Emily Thornberry: 3

After what has been the biggest night so far of CLP meetings the overall picture is looking broadly the same and the big outstanding question is whether the Shadow Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry will make the cut.

Thanks to the excellent @clpnominations for his regularly updated Twitter feed for what is actually going on at the branch meetings keeping up an excellent running total of the LAB nomination race. His chart above gives a good geographical spread.

The big picture is that a consistent trend appears to be happening with just under two-thirds of constituencies going for the former Director of Public prosecutions and Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer. RLB and Lisa Nandy are currently level pegging on 7 with Emily Thornberry down at just 3.

The Twitter account of @clpnominations and many of the responses are a good place to look for the latest news and get a sense of the passion and feelings within the movement during this critical transition period.

What is clear is that those constituencies which nominated Corbyn in both 2015 and 2016 are sticking with with his chosen successor Long-Bailey while those that didn’t nominate in the last two leadership elections or went with candidates other than Corbyn are getting behind Starmer or Nandy.

We cannot assume that the constituency nominations are a good guide to how people will vote once the membership ballots goes out out in March but given the polling there’s little doubt that Starmer is worth his 69% chance that he’s been currently rated on the Betfair Exchange.

Mike Smithson