LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starmer remains the firm favourite

January 22nd, 2020
Chart of Betfair market from Betda.io

Stamer’s big worry must be the length of the campaign

We have not looked at the LAB leadership betting since Jess Phillips dropped out and as can be seen from the latest chart the man movement has been for Lisa Nandy . This follows her latest union nomination moving her to within a whisper of getting onto the members ballot that goes out in March.

The remaining question is whether Emily Thornberry will make it onto the ballot. She is one of the better-known figures within the party as the polling has shown and performed well when she used to stand in for Corbyn at PMQs. prime Minister’s Questions. To get on the ballot she needs 33 CLPs to nominate her and that might be a tad easier given the other three all seem pretty secure .

On the face of it the prize looks set to go to Starmer and the main worry for his campaign , surely, is that there is a such long time to go before the ballots go out in March and even longer before the election closes in early April. The problem with so much time is that it does allow the possibility of of something emerging that could undermine him. Being the front runner means that those who are opposed to are going to to do what they can to try to impede his progress.

The latest such move comes from the chairman of the party, Ian Lavery, who is saying that the time has come for for a female leader and he has urged Starmer to stand aside .

Once we get to the postal ballot stage the series of TV debates and hustings could have a big influence on the campaign and provide a platform for one of the three others to trying to shine and make a case for themselves.

Mike Smithson