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Bernie Sanders moves into the favourites slot for the Democratic nomination

January 12th, 2020

As can be seen from the chart we have a new favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination. The oldest man in the race, the Socialist senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has now edged above Joe Biden in the betting to become the latest favourite.

This has been driven by the latest set of polls from the early primary States where Sanders looks set to win both the Iowa caucuses on February 3rd and the New Hampshire primary the following week. That would really under underpin his front-runner status.

Bernie’s current polling strength is causing concern in the party. There are many there are many who take the view that he would not be the right person to take on trump next November. The problem for the Bernie sceptics is that at Sanders is incredibly well organised with with thousands of enthusiastic volunteers in States right across the Union. It is by no means inconceivable that he could end up at the convention in the summer with the most number of delegates.

Because the delegates split after each state primary is proportional then it is becoming possible that we could see a split convention and here, I guess, Bernie might struggle. I’ve long taken the view that one of my Bloomberg’s key strategies is to secure enough delegates for the convention that he is in a position to to have a huge influence on who gets selected by the party and that wouldn’t be Bernie.

Mike Smithson