Starmer formally launches his campaign and moves to a 73% chance on Betfair

January 11th, 2020
Betdata.io chart

Punters seem to think it is all over

The frontrunner in the betting to succeed Corbyn, Keir Starmer, has formally launched his campaign and has seen his position in the betting rise even further. At his launch he was blunt about where LAB stands and the huge challenges ahead. According to the Guardian he said:

“We’re focusing on the last general election, (but) we have now lost four general elections in a row. The next one will probably be in four or five years’ time and if we lose that we will have the longest period of the Labour party out of power since the second world war. We have a mountain to climb.”

Clearly he’s in a strong position at the moment with a big lead on MP backers and, of course, the support of Unison the UK’s biggest union. It is hard to see him failing to meet the thresholds to move to the next stages.

But there is a long way to go and we are nearly two months away from the point where ballot packs go out to the party’s selectorate.

That poll of LAB members from YouGov two weeks ago is hard to argue with and the more likely it appears that Starmer will win the more backing he’ll get.

It is perhaps worth noting that just a month after March the leadership result will be announced, will be the fifteenth anniversary of GE2005 Labour’s last general election victory. That’s a long time ago.

Mike Smithson