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Month: December 2019

Tory and SNP landslides – Blair’s lasting legacy?

Tory and SNP landslides – Blair’s lasting legacy?

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  In 1997 Labour swept to a landslide victory sweeping all parts of Britain. In Scotland winning 45.6% of the vote and 77.8% of the seats. In England winning 43.5% of the votes and 62.0% of the seats. One of Blair’s first and most consequential acts was to bring in devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but left English laws controlled by Parliament with no answer to the West Lothian Question. Supposedly a decision that was intended to “kill…

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A reminder of the last July’s YouGov LAB members’ polling on the leadership

A reminder of the last July’s YouGov LAB members’ polling on the leadership

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We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear. Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it…

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What sort of fool would have predicted the politics of 2020 in 2010? Me.

What sort of fool would have predicted the politics of 2020 in 2010? Me.

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Andy Welsh Flickr Time for the reckoning on my long-term calls At the start of the decade, I asked what politics in the UK would look like ten years hence. That time has now arrived, so let’s look at how I did and, beyond that, how anyone could have done. Predicting a few weeks ahead can be a hazardous business; predicting a decade into the future would be foolhardy in the extreme which is probably why observant readers will notice…

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Rishi Sunak – tipped here for next PM when he was 200/1 now 25/1

Rishi Sunak – tipped here for next PM when he was 200/1 now 25/1

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My Ladbrokes betting slip Back at the end of November longstanding PBer, Philip Thompson, wrote a header here suggesting that the 200/1 then available on Rishi Sunak for next CON leader was a great value bet. I was one of a number on the site who had a little flutter taking the 250/1 on Sunak after Ladbrokes boosted the odds. Clearly this is going to be a long term bet but I’m encouraged that the latest odds are now 25/1…

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The Leave seat with a miniscule LAB majority that didn’t fall

The Leave seat with a miniscule LAB majority that didn’t fall

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Why didn’t bellwether Bedford swing? Even though it was a fortnight ago I’ve still not found an answer to what appeared to be an inexplicable outcome in my seat of Bedford. This is a constituency that at GE2010, GE2015, GE2017 and the referendum voted most of all 650 seats in line with the country as a whole. Longstanding PB regular, Andy JS, highlighted the seat’s status before GE2019 and certainly on hearing the exit poll many, including me, assumed that…

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GE2019 – the general election that the pollsters mostly got right

GE2019 – the general election that the pollsters mostly got right

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Wikipedia I don’t want to move on from the general election before just looking back at the performance of the pollsters. This election was important to them following  the disappointing final surveys that we saw in 2015 and 2017 when with one or two notable exceptions the polls were some way off. Note  that national polling for Westminster elections generally takes place on a GB basis with Northern Ireland being excluded. So the comparisons should be made with what happened…

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The 2019 St John PB Christmas Crossword (est 2006)

The 2019 St John PB Christmas Crossword (est 2006)

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ACROSS 1 Retired politician’s live argument over Conservative leader (6) 5 Thatcher’s material restraining Independent once having opposed his own party (8) 9 Soldiers left in charge by local government for instance (8) 10 Diplomat got it and succeeded (6) 11 Returning officer had to cancel (6) 12 Tory Home Secretary backed Gladstone – good! (4-4) 14 American activist bit monarch and so called Prime Minister (4,8) 17 Tory can just about cope at first – right? (6,6) 20 Swinson…

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Labour’s uncivil (Brexit) war     

Labour’s uncivil (Brexit) war     

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 A guest slot from Egg The fuel to ignite the bitterness of the imminent Labour war is fact you cannot have remainers in the Labour Party now.   How can you if the word has no meaning anymore, remainery has ceased to be, if the party ever wins again they will inherit a nation (or whats left of it) outside the EU. So it needs a compromise, does it not?             Whether voting for one or betting on the outcome,…

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