UPDATED: Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 35% chance in the Corbyn successor betting

December 15th, 2019

>Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange market

Former favourite Keir Starmer slips badly as the betting hots up

The chart shows the dramatic changes in the next LAB leader betting following LAB’s GE19 electoral defeat and the realisation that they look set to be faced with a Johnson big majority government for possibly the next five years.

In the immediate aftermath of the result the money piled on Starmer but now that has sharply reversed with Rebecca London-Bailey making the running. It is being reported that John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, and Richard Burgon, the shadow justice secretary, are backing Rebecca.

There are a lot of unknowns at this stage. When is Corbyn actually going to quit and will LAB’s NEC amend the rules under which the contest takes place. No doubt the Corbynistas will be doing their best to so arrange things that the next leader is from the same wing of the party that the incumbent belongs to.

One thing we haven’t seen is any attempt to work out what went wrong.

Having a LAB leader with the worst leader ratings on record was always going to show and so it did. A Corbyn lookalike would surely lead to a GE19 lookalike.

Mike Smithson