Johnson is surely relatively safe in his Uxbridge & Ruislip constituency

December 4th, 2019

At the referendum it was 56.4% Leave

In some quarters quite a lot of people have been getting excited about Johnson possibly running into trouble in his Uxbridge & Ruislip constituency which he held at GE2017 with a majority of 5k+.

In the chart I’ve shown the vote shares from last time and the projection by Prof Chris Hanratty on the party shares there at the May 23rd Euros.

First thing to note is that this is not your typical West London seat which is part of Remainier. It went Leave by a clear margin. This was further reflected in the May 2019 Euro election results there where BRX had a convincing victory. Farage’s party is not standing there a week tomorrow.

That 40% GE2017 LAB share looks promising but there are not that many other votes there to squeeze.

What Uxbridge is likely to do is to divert hordes of LAB activists from seats that really are at stake fixated by the prospect that the PM could be in trouble. My view is that they would struggle to make it happen.

I wonder if this could be part of the next round of Deltapoll constituency surveys.

Mike Smithson