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Month: December 2019

The big development in the Democratic nomination betting is the rise and rise of Bernie

The big development in the Democratic nomination betting is the rise and rise of Bernie

With all the focus on the GE2019 aftermath we haven’t paid much attention to what will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of 2020 – the White House Race. At the moment, five and a half weeks before the Iowa caucuses the main activity has been on the Democratic nomination battle. Iowa is the state that is the first to decide and generally has a big impact on shaping how the race will go in the states that…

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On the LAB leadership betting markets Starmer and Long-Bailey continue to dominate

On the LAB leadership betting markets Starmer and Long-Bailey continue to dominate

Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from Betdata.io It is now two and a half weeks since Corbyn announced his intention of standing down and although quite a number of names have been mentioned as a possible successors it is Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey who continue to attract the attention of punters. The “race” is expected to start formally next week when the party’s NEC meets and the rules for the contest agreed. A big challenge of all…

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Reflections – Part One

Reflections – Part One

Sometimes, it’s apparently minor decisions in politics which can annoy the most.  Here is my list. 1. Lords and Ladies Peerages for Nicky Morgan and Zac Goldsmith but not Ken Clarke. Eh? There are many arguments for having a different second chamber to the current House of Lords but surely, while it exists, those joining it should be politicians with experience and knowledge to contribute. Whether you agree with Clarke’s EU views, he has – since the referendum – played…

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In Scotland all the polls in the entire 2017-2019 parliament understated the SNP

In Scotland all the polls in the entire 2017-2019 parliament understated the SNP

The SNP’s 45% of the Scottish vote gave the party 81% of the Scottish seats One of the features of this month’s general election that hasn’t received much attention is how successful the SNP were in the 59 Scottish sets. For the third general election is succession it was this part of the UK that saw the most change in terms of seats  with on December 12th 15 of the 59 constituencies ending up in different hands. This always looked…

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Server Upgraded!

Server Upgraded!

Now with shiny https! Hopefully no problems. But if you do see problems, please send me an email at my gmail, and I’ll look into them. Thanks, rcs1000

Sorry!

Sorry!

About all the site problems. I did a server upgrade, and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the new server. So I rolled it back… and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the old server either. 🙁 You can access the comments here. I’m communicating with Vanilla, and I’m sure we’ll get it sorted soon. Thanks, Robert

Occasionally 52% of voters have impeccable judgment, here’s the proof

Occasionally 52% of voters have impeccable judgment, here’s the proof

Turns out 52% of the country are wise. https://t.co/Ais2UKHVqr — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 23, 2019 52% of voters are correct is not a sentence I expected to write but here we are. This finding isn’t a surprise, after all the star of the film, Bruce Willis, has himself said Die Hard is definitely not a Christmas film, after all film released in July 1988 can hardly be categorised as a Christmas film can it? TSE