Archive for November, 2019

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Your PB easy access guide to who is standing where

Thursday, November 28th, 2019

Make sure you are not in the dark

Once again thanks to Andy JS for putting together a spreadsheet to help guide us through the election a fortnight on Thursday.

This is remarkably easy to use and search and I’ve found it to be very helpful.

Mike Smithson




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So after the MRP polls Johnson’s GE2019 gamble looks as though it will pay off

Thursday, November 28th, 2019

And more constituency polls are on the way



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The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t become PM

Thursday, November 28th, 2019

They can safely consider an anti-Brexit party

Most of the focus on the two MRP sets of projections that we got last night is that in certain key seats tactical voting has the potential to impede the pro-Brexit Tories. Certainly in the bellwether seat of Bedford where I live both YouGov and the Best for Britain suggest that the Tories are just one percent ahead and it won’t take much to have an impact.

But there is another group that gets much less attention – those GE2017 CON voters who backed remain. The breakdown of their current voting intentions from the latest Opinium poll is in the chart above.

Their concern surely is they don’t want to do anything that could possibly enable Corbyn to enter Number 10. This is the message that Cummings will be making very forcibly in the next two weeks in order to keep voters onside.

But the MRP polling showing a possible 68 seat majority for Johnson will likely ease their concerns and backing a stop Brexit party might just be seen as an option.

This weekend there’s to be a fresh round of Peter Kellner’s constituency polls with a further three seats being looked at by Deltapoll. These are being carried out to set out the potential for tactical voting and there are some very big differences with the YouGo MRP.

Last week his Hendon poll had the Tories safe and dry while neighboring Finchley and Golders Green was less certain. The YouGov MRP has a different story.

Mike Smithson




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And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68

Wednesday, November 27th, 2019

This’ll form the basis for tactical voting

Just published in the Time the first YouGov MRP projection which should calm the nerves at CCHQ.

This will be dissected by opposition parties and used to press the case for tactical voting in specific seats.

Let’s see how the betting markets respond.

Mike Smithson




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It looks as though Big Bold Boris could skip the Andrew Neil interview

Wednesday, November 27th, 2019

If so could this be like TMay skipping the GE17 debates

This hasn’t been confirmed yet but there appears to be a possibility that Johnson might not agree to do an Andrew Neil interview like the one that Nicola Sturgeon and Corbyn have already gone through.

Adam Boulton’s Tweet sums this up – that the risk of being called a chicken is less than what might happen if he went ahead.

This is a high risk strategy as we saw at GE2017 when TMay refused to take part in the TV leaders’ debates. As post-election polling suggested this was a big negative for the then PM who went on to lose the Tories heir Commons majority.

This comes on a big night as we wait for the first YouGov MRP poll with its detailed projections for individual seats.

Mike Smithson




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The political divide between mums and dads, poor Ipsos MORI ratings for Swinson and the latest voting numbers

Wednesday, November 27th, 2019



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Bloomberg’s WH2020 bid looks serious and credible and it helps that he’s worth $50bn

Wednesday, November 27th, 2019

The multi-billionaire who wants to beat Trump

Above is one of the first WH2020 campaign ads for 77 year old Michael Bloomberg who announced at the weekend that we was running for the White House. His approach to the campaign for the Democratic is very different from his rivals.

Firstly, of course, he’s not having to bother with the tedious business of fundraising. He’s committed $150m of his own money to his campaign and clearly there is a lot more there if he needs it.

Secondly he’s not bothering with the four early primary states where the outcomes generally set the tone for the whole campaign. His focus is on March 3rd “Super Tuesday” This is when the delegate-rich states of California and Texas as well as twelve other are holding their primaries and is likely to be fairly decisive in determining who takes on Trump in November 2020.

For the other contenders Super Tuesday is a massive challenge simply because of the resource requirements that are needed to mount efforts across such a wide range of parts of the US. Bloomberg will be able to have a big presence in all because he’s got the resources.

Bloomberg, of course, is no stranger to the political world. As a Republican (he has since switched parties) he ran and won the New York Mayoralty in 2001 and went on to win re-election twice serving a total of 12 years.

His prime aim now appears to be to stop Trump and it is said he fears that if either Warren on Sanders was the nominee they would struggle to win the White House because they are too left-wing.

At the very minimum he is likely to accumulate enough delegates to give him a fairly big say over who will get the nomination if it is not him. 

He’s currently fifth favourite at 7% on Betfair for the nomination. I’ve had a punt.

  • I plan to be in California for Super Tuesday and will be doing PB posts from there

    Mike Smithson




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Tonight’s Andrew Neil-Corbyn interview – this is as tough as it gets

Tuesday, November 26th, 2019

One thing’s for sure: Johnson and Swinson won’t be looking forward to their sessions