The man who took over Hague’s Richmond (Yorks) seat at GE2015
The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out instantly Jeremy Corbyn. If the Conservatives get a healthy majority then I believe this results in three likely scenarios. In no particular order:
1: Labour elects a new leader, Johnson serves a full term but loses the following election. This could be made more likely by Brexit being a failure if you are expecting that. Look for Labour candidates who are both likely to be elected and who you think could win an election. Starmer is currently the most likely candidate on the markets from this category.
2: Johnson runs into problems early in the next term and has to be replaced rapidly by a Tory elder statesman. Familiar names like Hunt, Gove and Javid come to mind.>
3: Johnson serves for a long time and the ‘next generation’ of Conservative MPs come forward, with one of these in the future replacing Johnson. A number of former ‘big hitters’ will no longer be in the Commons next time so it could be time for a new face to come forward.
It is in the third category that I suspect value lies. Whether as a potential winner, or as a trading bet. The market has a tendency to overestimate long established names, even David Miliband is still on the Betfair list. If the Conservatives do indeed win a healthy majority then we will quickly move on from the last generation of MPs that have stepped down and there are some potential future big hitters in that list.
At 39 there is potential for Sunak to be a big name for many years to come – in which case I do not think the 200/1 odds will remain for long. Either as a trading bet or to actually win, at 200/1 could this be our Next Prime Minister?
Philip Thompson is a longstanding PBer