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The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t become PM

November 28th, 2019

They can safely consider an anti-Brexit party

Most of the focus on the two MRP sets of projections that we got last night is that in certain key seats tactical voting has the potential to impede the pro-Brexit Tories. Certainly in the bellwether seat of Bedford where I live both YouGov and the Best for Britain suggest that the Tories are just one percent ahead and it won’t take much to have an impact.

But there is another group that gets much less attention – those GE2017 CON voters who backed remain. The breakdown of their current voting intentions from the latest Opinium poll is in the chart above.

Their concern surely is they don’t want to do anything that could possibly enable Corbyn to enter Number 10. This is the message that Cummings will be making very forcibly in the next two weeks in order to keep voters onside.

But the MRP polling showing a possible 68 seat majority for Johnson will likely ease their concerns and backing a stop Brexit party might just be seen as an option.

This weekend there’s to be a fresh round of Peter Kellner’s constituency polls with a further three seats being looked at by Deltapoll. These are being carried out to set out the potential for tactical voting and there are some very big differences with the YouGo MRP.

Last week his Hendon poll had the Tories safe and dry while neighboring Finchley and Golders Green was less certain. The YouGov MRP has a different story.

Mike Smithson