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Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six London remain seats

November 26th, 2019

In deepest Remainia the polling picture is very different

For the last couple of Sundays the former YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has published a total of six constituency polls as part of an effort to examine potential tactical voting possibilities in seats which voted Remain at the referendum. So far all of them have been in London but next weekend we are promised a selection from elsewhere in England.

The voting figures in all six seats have the Tories in the lead with in all but one of them showing much reduced gaps over the LDs compared with the last general election.

As well as voting questions in the  polls, carried out by Deltapoll, there have been leader ratings in every survey asking whether those sampled thought Johnson/Corbyn/Swinson are doing well/badly.

Given that the sample for each seat is about 500 taking one set of numbers is probably not very helpful. However with six polls and an aggregated sample of more than 3k then we get something more meaningful and I’ve put together the net aggregated leader numbers in the chart above.

These should be compared with the ratings latest national Deltapoll which has Johnson on net minus 10%, Corbyn on net minus 34% and Swinson net minus 22%.  The biggest variation in this series of constituency surveys is with Swinson.

What is clear is that a very different election is taking place in strong Remain areas suggesting the possibility of CON losses if enough tactical voting takes place

Mike Smithson