New constituency poll for LAB-held Great Grimsby looks dire for the incumbent

November 21st, 2019

Like all seat polls this has a very small sample (401) but the overall figures look promising for the Tories in one of its key northern targets and bad for LAB.

Looking at the detailed data LAB is currently retaining only 53% of its GE2017 share compared to GE2017.

If this is a reflection of what is happening in similar seats that’s very good news for the Tories.

One factor is that a largish slab of the GE2017 LAB vote there is still undecided. Another factor is the more of the LAB vote from last is going to the Brexit party. The fieldwork was carried out last week and so all before the Tuesday debate.

It should be said that single seat polls have not got a great reputation following the huge number that were carried out by Lord Ashcroft ahead of GE2015. The vast majority of those surveys took place well before the election. This time we have seen a raft of polls from Survation and Deltapoll that have carried out in October and this month so perhaps more relevant.

In comparative terms we are three weeks away from election day although postal voters in many seats are receiving their packs this week. Things can change.

On the betting markets you can still get the Tories 4/6 in Great Grimsby with some of the bookies. My guess is that that will tighten once news of this poll becomes more widely known.

We have yet to see a full national GB poll which was carried out after the Tuesday ITV debates.

Mike Smithson