Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look too short and Grieve too long

November 19th, 2019

The latest Beaconsfield betting


I’m planning a short series of posts on the betting in interesting seats and number one, for me, is Beaconsfield where the former MP and prominent anti-Brexiteer, Dominic Grieve, is trying to hold on.

At GE2017 Grieve won with a whopping 65.3% of the vote nearly 44% shead of LAB in second place. Back at the pre-coalition GE2010 the LDs came second with just under 20%.

Grieve’s helped by the fact that the LDs have stood aside and this looks like a straight battle between him and the Tory candidate, Joy Morrissey. Her line of attack is summed up in this comment “Voting for the independent candidate is essentially a vote for Corbyn” which I assume is being used all over the country.

The big question is how much of the Tory vote will stick with the incumbent who has built up a national profile and all also likely to have a personal vote. You can also see tactical voting from LAB supporters in an effort to defeat the Tory though how strong that will be given Grieve’s former party is hard to say.

UKIP did reasonably well there at GE2015 getting 13.8% of the vote.

Overall Beaconsfield went Remain by a very small margin and I would guess that a significant slice of Tory remainers will go with Grieve.

Against that the Tories are likely to be much better organised though I wonder whether Grieve might be getting some assistance from the LDs.

I’d still make Morrisey the favourite but 1/4 does not look like value at all.

Mike Smithson