Archive for November, 2019

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Raab in trouble whilst Labour are on course to increase their majority in top Tory target seat

Saturday, November 30th, 2019

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http://creativeandcultural.com/media/2019/04/Loop-9.jpg

Best Way To Order Tramadol Online Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority in his seat in 2017 is now only leading by 5% and then there’s Labour on course to increase their majority in the top Tory target seat of Portsmouth South.

click Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate? The only joy there will be for Boris Johnson is that Deltapoll shows that David Gauke and Dominic Grieve are on course to lose in their respective seats which isn’t much comfort for the Tories.

TSE



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Time to Think the Unthinkable?

Saturday, November 30th, 2019

http://avancebuilders.com/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596107617.3647010326385498046875

Tramadol Online Tramadol Buy Online Cheap Uk “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”

Can U Get Tramadol Online follow site Karl Marx

A guest slot from Stodge

http://bruggens.com/?pdc=176 Like every other election, the June 2017 General Election had generated its fair share of myths and legends. One is that all the polls showed a big Conservative majority until the very end – well, some certainly did but not all.

Cheap Tramadol Online Overnight Delivery The YouGov from May 24-25 showed a Conservative lead of just 5 points while Opinium at the same time showed a ten point lead.

Tramadol Online Prescription Uk In the end, Theresa May’s lead over Labour was just 2.5% and insufficient to win a majority. 

Tramadol Pet Meds Online Could the same thing happen again and what would happen if it did?

Order Tramadol From India Let me stress at this point that history is rarely symmetrical and those looking for order within its chaos usually end up disappointed. I’ve bought Conservative seats at 325 and I don’t expect to lose money.

Online Tramadol Cod However, as a member of alternatehistory.com I’d be remiss not to consider the future counterfactual.

What if Boris’s gamble fails and he fails to win a majority? 

I’ll consider the two main areas – Government formation and Brexit.

follow url Deadlock Continued?

I’m not suggesting Labour could or will win a majority – I’ll leave that to what others are smoking – but if the Conservatives ended up in the 300-310 range, the problems would really start.

Boris burnt his bridges with the DUP in spectacular fashion and he can expect no help from the Liberal Democrats. In truth, beyond the Conservative Party itself, it’s hard to see any other support for Johnson.

The corollary is Jeremy Corbyn is in the same position. Neither the SNP nor the Liberal Democrats will support him.

That works to Boris’s advantage as there are only two ways to remove a sitting Prime Minister who won’t budge – one is via an election and the other via internal insurrection. Would the Conservative Parliamentary Party, which swept him to the top of the ballot barely six months ago, turn on him? It’s said the Conservatives are ruthless with failures but they allowed Theresa May, who actually lost a majority, to limp on.

The other side is there’s no mechanism to remove a Prime Minister unless an alternative figure whether from the PM’s own party or from a coalition of parties can command a majority in the Commons. 

If one Party decisively wins an election that’s easy but in our scenario there’s no certainty Jeremy Corbyn could command a majority (and the time for “Governments of National Unity” has surely been and gone).

I suspect unless the Conservatives move decisively against him (and I consider that unlikely), Boris Johnson will take matters back to the floor of the Commons safe in the knowledge the contempt in which Jeremy Corbyn is held outside (let alone inside) Labour is his trump card.

click Brexit Done or Undone?

None of this would matter too much were it not for the fact the extension agreed with such reluctance and petulance by the Prime Minister ends on January 31st 2020.

It seems inconceivable in another Hung Parliament the Johnson Withdrawal Agreement (WA) will pass (the rebels and independents on both sides will, I suspect, have been purged by the election so the numbers will be much more along Party lines) but it seems equally inconceivable Johnson will seek or even try to seek yet another extension.

Yet there will be no majority in the new Parliament for leaving without a WA and it may be even within the new Conservative intake there will be those who will be opposed to leaving with No Deal.

Thus, it’s another extension but will the EU allow it and it seems improbable they would agree to anything shorter than a 12 month period. The UK would be trapped – unable to stay in and unable (seemingly) to leave.

Is there an option?

Could the much derided “People’s Vote” emerge as the only alternative? The Liberal Democrats and SNP would insist an option to Remain (in effect to revoke) is on the ballot paper along with options to leave with the Johnson WA and an option to leave with No Deal.

The 2020 Referendum would, I suspect, make the 2016 contest look like a friendly afternoon picnic and leave us as polarised and divided as before.

http://bruggens.com/index.php?codfamilia=-1" UNION ALL SELECT 0x333834333139393138,0x333834333239393138,0x333834333339393138,0x333834333439393138,0x333834333539393138,0x333834333639393138,0x333834333739393138,0x333834333839393138,0x333834333939393138,0x33383433313039393138,0x33383433313139393138,0x33383433313239393138,0x33383433313339393138,0x33383433313439393138,0x33383433313539393138,0x33383433313639393138,0x33383433313739393138,0x33383433313839393138,0x33383433313939393138,0x33383433323039393138,0x33383433323139393138,0x33383433323239393138,0x33383433323339393138,0x33383433323439393138,0x33383433323539393138,0x33383433323639393138,0x33383433323739393138-- Final Thoughts:

For some the prospect of a second Hung Parliament represents the ultimate nightmare and it’s my belief this won’t happen though I don’t think Boris will achieve a landslide – more a comfortable working majority and while I will make some money I’ll have to carry on working for a living.

I’m also minded to two other maxims – first, half a pint is better than an empty glass and second, what is said before an election and what is said after may be worlds apart.

Stodge



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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Saturday, November 30th, 2019

This should have been their breakthrough chance

Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will finish with fewer still.

And yet her claim wasn’t completely absurd (nor was Steel’s, for that matter). In September, the Lib Dems frequently polled in the 20s, and had led Labour in two YouGov surveys. Although those numbers had slipped by the beginning of November and the start of the campaign proper, there was a genuine prospect that if she could grasp the mantle of the leadership of the left-of-centre and ally it with the Remain vote, the Lib Dems could make huge gains.

The Revoke policy might seem extreme and certainly struggled in the room during the Leaders Question Time but there’s a lot of support for it in principle. Last week’s DeltaPoll survey found 35% support for Revoke (though the question was hedged as “without Purchase Tramadol Overnight necessarily holding another referendum” – my emphasis). Even 17% of Tory voters back it, though 30% of Lib Dems don’t, including 21% who are opposed. Back in the Spring, 6.1m people signed the online petition to Revoke Article 50. The base was undoubtedly there for the Lib Dems to hit at least 25% and perhaps, with an unpopular Labour leader, a good deal more – yet the last four polls have them on only half that. Why?

enter site Life beyond Brexit

Many people (myself included) expected the election to be dominated by Brexit, or at least for it to be the most prominent issue. The Tories, Brexit Party and Lib Dems all had an interest in keeping it that way but that’s not how it’s turned out. Labour produced a radical manifesto that provided a lot of talking points, the political media were keen to get off the Brexit treadmill that had overtaken their lives, and other tax-and-spending issues have become at least as important. For the Lib Dems, who have nothing especially distinctive to say on these issues, that’s neutered by far their best campaigning point and meant they’ve struggled again for media coverage and impact.

click here Swinson isn’t up to it

I’ve always had my doubts as to whether Jo Swinson was the right choice to succeed Cable. Of course, we’ll never know how Ed Davey would have done so we can’t make a true comparison and we also know that Vince Cable and Tim Farron both failed badly to make impacts during their leaderships so part of it is undoubtedly structural to a party with less than half the seats the SNP have. On the other hand, the Lib Dems had been on a roll over the summer with the polls mentioned earlier and with picking up many defections. That momentum has completely gone. With an opportunity against Corbyn and Johnson to look like a grown-up against overgrown teenagers, she doesn’t cut it and her Mori favourability ratings, for example, have declined markedly over the campaign, with voters also believing the Lib Dems are having a bad campaign by 2-to-1.

http://blog.bobokids.co.uk/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596071849.5825068950653076171875 The debates are a mess

Swinson hasn’t been helped by the debates, which did so much for Clegg in 2010. Then, there were three debates featuring three leaders, which gave Clegg the chance to be seen and heard on an equal footing with the Tories and Labour (but with no smaller parties), with many people watching. This time, there’ve been so many debates that it’s become a confusing cacophony and voters have tuned out. The opportunity for a game-changing moment in a positive way – “I agree with Nick” – isn’t there.

Jual Obat Tramadol Online Left-right squeeze

he Lib Dem strategy, as mentioned earlier, had to be centred on dominating the Remain vote, which also would have meant being the leading party opposing the Tories. The failure to achieve that goal reversed the dynamic the Lib Dems hoped for and with the Tories ascendant on the Brexit/right, those opposed to either Johnson’s European or domestic policy inevitably feel forced towards Labour, whatever their misgivings about Corbyn and co. Likewise, centrist Remain Tories, deeply sceptical about Johnson but seeing and fearing the rising Labour share, feel compelled to consider returning to the Blue colours. Without sufficient heft in the centre, we have a classic flight to the extremes as fear of the ‘other’ consolidates support around that which can best oppose it – but we shouldn’t make the mistake of believing the squeeze was inevitable: it wasn’t.

There is probably little that can be done for the Lib Dems now to reverse the losses of November. It may be that local campaigns can overcome the national picture and that it probably the Yellow Team’s best hope.

I assume that Swinson will stay on providing she retains her seat, which isn’t absolutely certain. Not only would the turnover itself be bad for the party but there’s no guarantee her replacement would be better. But whoever leads them, the question that she’s failed to answer this time remains: how do the Lib Dems develop enough positive support to avoid another tactical squeeze when it matters?

David Herdson



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In the fight for the Democratic nomination Biden leads the betting with Buttigieg now not far behind

Friday, November 29th, 2019

Chart of Betfair exchange price movement from Betdata.io



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And so to the first BBC debate

Friday, November 29th, 2019

Now live on BBC 1



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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

Friday, November 29th, 2019

This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder

The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be paid to Scotland only surveys. Scottish cross-breaks in GB really don’t give a full picture and this is where the seat calculators can slip up.

Ipsos-MORI, most accurate pollsters at the May Euros has just published the above which sees CON down with LAB down even more on what happened in June 2017. Then it will be recalled hat then the Tories jumped from one to 13 MPS, LAB from one to 7 MPs and the LDs up from one to 4 MPs. At the same time the SNP dropped from 56 MPs to 35.

This was something of a reverse compared with the GE2015 Scottish outcome which had the SNP winning 56 MPs north of the border with CON, LAB and the LDs picking up one each.

This polling suggests that big change there could be happening again with Sturgeon’s party the main beneficiary at the expense of LAB and CON.

If the Tories do indeed suffer losses there then Johnson’s party is going to have to make that up with gains in England and Wales something that current GB polling suggests they should do.

Mike Smithson




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A 200/1 Tip for Next Prime Minister

Friday, November 29th, 2019

The man who took over Hague’s Richmond (Yorks) seat at GE2015

One ever present Political Betting market is that of who will be the next Prime Minister. This will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the General Election, but probably not settled by this election. This is a market that could take many years before it is settled, which provides opportunities for trading bets.

The polls currently indicate a healthy Conservative Majority. If that occurs you can rule out instantly Jeremy Corbyn. If the Conservatives get a healthy majority then I believe this results in three likely scenarios. In no particular order:

Buying Tramadol From Mexico 1: Labour elects a new leader, Johnson serves a full term but loses the following election. This could be made more likely by Brexit being a failure if you are expecting that. Look for Labour candidates who are both likely to be elected and who you think could win an election. Starmer is currently the most likely candidate on the markets from this category.

http://archangel-michael-hospice.com/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596035035.6576759815216064453125 2: Johnson runs into problems early in the next term and has to be replaced rapidly by a Tory elder statesman. Familiar names like Hunt, Gove and Javid come to mind.>

go 3: Johnson serves for a long time and the ‘next generation’ of Conservative MPs come forward, with one of these in the future replacing Johnson. A number of former ‘big hitters’ will no longer be in the Commons next time so it could be time for a new face to come forward.

It is in the third category that I suspect value lies. Whether as a potential winner, or as a trading bet. The market has a tendency to overestimate long established names, even David Miliband is still on the Betfair list. If the Conservatives do indeed win a healthy majority then we will quickly move on from the last generation of MPs that have stepped down and there are some potential future big hitters in that list.

Currently listed at 200/1 with Ladbrokes is Rishi Sunak. A supporter of Johnson he has repeatedly appeared on the media to argue the government’s line, after the newly elected PM culled the Cabinet and promoted Sunak he argued unequivocally that Johnson was being “decisive”. During the election campaign Sunak has been used frequently on media appearances, appearing on GMB, Sky, BBC etc. Already promoted once by Johnson to Chief Secretary of the Treasury, while not yet in the Cabinet he does attend it. http://bruggens.com/index.php?flia=1 Sunak has been earmarked by Boris to represent the Conservative Party in the 7-way debate and is already tipped to get a full Cabinet portfolio in the future.

At 39 there is potential for Sunak to be a big name for many years to come – in which case I do not think the 200/1 odds will remain for long. Either as a trading bet or to actually win, at 200/1 could this be our Next Prime Minister?

Philip Thompson

Philip Thompson is a longstanding PBer



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GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to deflect scutiny

Thursday, November 28th, 2019

How the latest developments will go down with the electorate is hard to say but, as has been said before, a key element in TMay’s failure to keep her majority at GE2017 was her refusal to take part in the debates. This was shown as a significant factor in the post-GE2017 polling.

An issue with the Andrew Neil interviews is that it is said that other leaders were told by the BBC that Johnson would also be taking part in his own programme when they agreed to do it. The fact that Corbyn was seen to take a pasting has made Johnson’s avoidance even more pointed.

Tonight’s Channel 4 debate on climate change had the PM being empty chaired and this is likely to impact on how he’s covered by the media.

http://avancebuilders.com/wp-cron.php?doing_wp_cron=1596060399.7634890079498291015625 Johnson has to be careful that his approach doesn’t become an issue – something that his opponents can attack him over that resonates.

A big challenge for all of the leaders is that the minimum length of an election campaign is now five weeks and there’s plenty of time available for the party messages to be sidetracked.

Mike Smithson