With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters rate Johnson’s majority chances at evens

October 29th, 2019

Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections

So the waiting is almost over and Johnson has got his December 12th election date. The vote on the amendment to have it three days earlier was defeated and the government had a rare Commons victory. This is not the same proposal as the one defeated yesterday.

Given the polling it is easy to see why punters on Betfair are putting their money on a Tory majority but there is a long time to go and as we saw at GE17 anything can happen.

This is not a bet I’d make at this price.

The LDs are raring to go and are hoping that their clear Brexit position will help them make gains in seats where Remain did well. So much depends on how Brexits play in the election.

Anyway it looks as though we are off.

  • Chart of Betfair exchange from Betdata.io
  • Mike Smithson