On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

October 17th, 2019

Betfair exchange prices on betdata.io chart

As can be seen in the chart the day has seen a lot of movement in the £2.5m Betfair exchange main Brexit market on whether the UK will leave by the end of the month.

Clearly the big risk for punters here is that this doesn’t go through the Commons on Saturday and we could see the Benn Act trigger which could delay things.

Even if the vote is backing Johnson on Saturday there is an enormous amount of legislative work that needs to be done and there are are very few parliamentary days possible this month to do that.

I think the betting is currently about right.

Mike Smithson