Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

October 14th, 2019

And 4/1 that Remain would win

Given how difficult Johnson has had in winning votes in the House of Commons this morning’s Queen’s Speech had a touch a fantasy about it. His Government is in a minority and thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act he is unable to call a general election to ameliorate the situation.

So having the monarch with all the ceremonial trappings listing the legislative plans was a bit it strange given there are simply not the CON MP numbers to get anything through. This is a programme that cannot be enacted and it was almost embarrassing that the Queen had to go along with the situation.

The big question now is whether we are heading for a new referendum on whatever deal eventually comes out of Brussels. Interestingly Corbyn loyalist and possible leadership contender, Rebecca Long-Bailey, was saying this morning that a referendum on the deal should come before a general election. That’s a good pointer to how her party could go.

Betfair have market up on which will come first – a second EU referendum or a new general election and the latter is the 1/3 odds on favourite. I have gone for the former at 3/1 which scenes an attractive price.

On the Ladbrokes betting I like the 4/1 on a Remain victory before the end of next year.

Mike Smithson