The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

October 9th, 2019

The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote.

What helps this analysis is that it is based on so many polls and does show a smallish but significant shift. The report points out that since GE2017 in J 204 out of 226 poll have Remain ahead, with just seven for Leave. There were 15 ties.

YouGov’s Anthony Wells is quoted as saying “The polling evidence is concrete. The overwhelming majority of questions asking people if Brexit is right or wrong, or if they would now vote Remain or Leave, show a lead for Remain, and have done for over two years..

“The characterisation of the situation as People vs Parliament doesn’t really stand up when the public are split over Brexit. It is more a case of half the public vs half of Parliament.

Mike Smithson