The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

October 9th, 2019

Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats

A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs.

She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up candidates in seats where a Remain-backing independent is seeking re-election.

Over the past few months Heidi has been brokering this arrangement which is designed to create a much bigger grouping at the general election.

We have not seen the details and the seats involved might only become apparent when nominations close for the general election.

A forerunner of this was at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election at the start of August when the Greens and PC stood aside to give the LDs a clear runs in a seat that in 2016 had voted leave. It worked.

From a betting perspective we must assume that PC and the Greens will benefit as well as the LDs. I’ve already got a buy General Election spread bet on the Greens and I’ve just had a similar punt on PC.

This arrangement also means we should take less notice of the Commons seat predictors which use as their base line what happened at GE2017.

Mike Smithson