Corbyn would be taking a massive gamble calling an election when he’s so far behind in the leader ratings
As has been remarked upon many times recently we are in a totally unprecedented situation when it comes to calling the next general election. Following Corbyn’s repeated reluctance to take the bait in September he, effectively, is the one who will decide when the country’s next general election will be held
Johnson simply does not have the votes to reach the required two-thirds of all MPs as laid down by the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. If he wants to go to the country early, and there might be good reasons for him doing so, then he has to rely on the opposition leader, Corbyn, moving a vote of no confidence in the prescribed form or him backing the PM’s motion.
So the decision is in Corbyn’s personal hands and the complete opposite situation that we normally expect. The question is will will Labour and its leader decide to go this year or will they reckon that holding on a bit will help its position period.
A factor that might help LAB leadership make its mind up are the latest leader ratings which show Corbyn continuing to struggle against others behind, on these measures, that might be unsurmountable.
But Corbyn might be buoyed up by the experience of last time when he was behind on voting intention but came through and did not suffer as big a defeat as many had been predicting. But, and sometimes his loyal backers forget this, he still lost.
The Glastonbury rhetoric in 2016 of “being in Downing Street by Christmas 2016” is all a long time ago.