Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson on New Year’s Day?

October 6th, 2019

Will the PM have more Cummings or goings?

This market by Paddy Power on Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings should attract a lot of attention given the prominence of Mr Cummings and his publicity shy nature that can only be rivalled by Paddy Power.

It is understandable why No is favourite in this market, during the summer it was reported that

Mr Cummings also suggested that he may leave his role after Britain exits the European Union on October 31. He postponed an operation that required general anaesthetic after being asked by Mr Johnson to work at No 10. He is due to have the operation in November. “Who knows if I will be back,” he said.

I suspect Dominic Cummings would like to add a (landslide) general election victory to his résumé to go alongside his role in winning the 2016 referendum. With the Benn Act being enacted I think that will see Cummings remain Boris Johnson’s senior adviser until Brexit actually happens. So that makes me think the value lies with Yes.

The main risk to this bet is the wording and if Boris Johnson brings in someone else with the title of say ‘principal adviser’ whilst keeping Cummings in his current role. Arguing semantics is always fun.